DOI: https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2018.145252

Development of the Markovian model for the life cycle of a project’s benefits

Varvara Piterska, Olexii Kolesnikov, Dmytro Lukianov, Kateryna Kolesnikova, Viktor Gogunskii, Tetiana Olekh, Anatoliy Shakhov, Sergey Rudenko

Abstract


This study has improved the standard P5 (Personnel, planet, profit, process, product), which has already been widely applied globally in the practice of project management. However, the standard P5 provides a scheme of the life cycle of projects’ benefits, which makes it possible to represent the lifecycle processes only at the qualitative level. In order to pass to the quantitative estimates, it has been proposed to apply the Markovian chain that maps a phenomenological representation of complex systems without considering their physical character.

We have constructed a cognitive Markovian model of the life cycle of a project’s benefits using the communications between the states of the project system. The cognitive structure of the life cycle is similar to a directed graph where vertices indicate the state of the system, and links are the communications between them. We have proposed an approach to determining transitional probabilities based on the evaluation of communications, taking into consideration the time costs to perform operations in the form of rules. The character of communications between states s→j in the Markovian chain defines the magnitude of transition probabilities πsj. The time costs required for each state are divided into five intervals πsj: {0} – no costs; {0.01–0.1} – insignificant time costs; {0.1–0.3} – the lowest level of time costs; {0.3–0.7} – average time costs; {0.7–1.0} – the largest time costs. The logic of choosing values for conditional transition probabilities in the Markovian chain makes it possible to determine data for the simulation of the trajectory of the life cycle of projects’ benefits in the coordinates of the probabilities of states of the system and steps.

It has been shown that the application of the Markovian chains is rational in order to represent the life cycle of projects’ benefits. An analysis was performed to determine a certain level of technological maturity of the project environment (organization), which corresponds to the totality of values for transition probabilities. We have studied the influence of the level of technological maturity of the project environment (organization) on the projects’ efficiency.

Another example of the implementation of the project aimed at forming the positive image of an educational establishment by applying the frontal information communication via television, the press, by taking part in mass political activities, has also revealed positive estimation. The probability distribution at the beginning of the project (V1) and upon its completion (V2) differs significantly. The implementation of the project increased the magnitudes of probabilities of states p7 (Benefit) and p8 (Additional benefit). At the beginning of the project: р7(V1)+р8(V2)=0.14+0.05=0.19. Upon implementation of the project: р7(V1)+р8(V2)=0.22+0.08=0.30. The evaluation of this project aimed at positive image formation of an educational establishment showed that the results obtained do not contradict the hypothesis about the possibility of applying the Markovian chains to determine the characteristics of the life cycle of a project’s benefits

Keywords


cognitive scheme; Markovian chain; level of technological maturity; life cycle; life cycle development trajectories

Full Text:

PDF

References


Rehacek, I. P. (2017). Application and usage of the standards for project management and their comparison. Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, 12 ((4)), 994–1002.

Managing Successful Programmes. Available at: https://www.itgovernance.co.uk/shop/product/managing-successful-programmes-2011-edition

The GPM®Global P5TM Standard forSustainabilityin Project Management. Ver. 1.5. GPM Global. Available at: https://www.greenprojectmanagement.org/the-p5-standard

Qureshi, S. M., Kang, C. (2015). Analysing the organizational factors of project complexity using structural equation modelling. International Journal of Project Management, 33 (1), 165–176. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.04.006

PM2 project management methodology guide (2016). Luxembourg, 147. doi: http://doi.org/10.2799/957700

Biloshchytskyi, A., Kuchansky, A., Andrashko, Y., Biloshchytska, S., Kuzka, O., Shabala, Y., Lyashchenko, T. (2017). A method for the identification of scientists' research areas based on a cluster analysis of scientific publications. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 5 (2 (89)), 4–11. doi: https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2017.112323

Drozd, J., Drozd, A. (2013). Models, methods and means as resources for solving challenges in co-design and testing of computer systems and their components. The International Conference on Digital Technologies 2013. doi: https://doi.org/10.1109/dt.2013.6566307

Wu, C., Nikulshin, V. (2000). Method of thermoeconomical optimization of energy intensive systems with linear structure on graphs. International Journal of Energy Research, 24 (7), 615–623. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/1099-114x(20000610)24:7<615::aid-er608>3.0.co;2-p

Biloshchytskyi, A., Myronov, O., Reznik, R., Kuchansky, A., Andrashko, Y., Paliy, S., Biloshchytska, S. (2017). A method to evaluate the scientific activity quality of HEIs based on a scientometric subjects presentation model. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 6 (2 (90)), 16–22. doi: https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2017.118377

Verkhivker, G. (2004). The use of chemical recuperation of heat in a power plant. Energy, 29 (3), 379–388. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2003.10.010

Kolesnіkov, O., Gogunskii, V., Kolesnikova, K., Lukianov, D., Olekh, T. (2016). Development of the model of interaction among the project, team of project and project environment in project system. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 5 (9 (83)), 20–26. doi: https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2016.80769

Gogunskii, V., Bochkovsky, А., Moskaliuk, A., Kolesnikov, O., Babiuk, S. (2017). Developing a system for the initiation of projects using a Markov chain. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 1 (3 (85)), 25–32. doi: https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2017.90971

Gogunskii, V., Kolesnikov, O., Kolesnikova, K., Lukianov, D. (2016). "Lifelong learning" is a new paradigm of personnel training in enterprises. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 4 (2 (82)), 4–10. doi: https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2016.74905

Demin, D. (2017). Improvement of approaches to the construction of the training process of sportsmen, considered within the framework of the realization of informal education processes. ScienceRise: Pedagogical Education, 9 (17), 28–46. doi: https://doi.org/10.15587/2519-4984.2017.111110

Lukianov, D., Bespanskaya-Paulenka, K., Gogunskii, V., Kolesnikov, O., Moskaliuk, A., Dmitrenko, K. (2017). Development of the markov model of a project as a system of role communications in a team. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 3 (3 (87)), 21–28. doi: https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2017.103231

Durand, G., Belacel, N., LaPlante, F. (2013). Graph theory based model for learning path recommendation. Information Sciences, 251, 10–21. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2013.04.017

Kaiser, M. G., El Arbi, F., Ahlemann, F. (2015). Successful project portfolio management beyond project selection techniques: Understanding the role of structural alignment. International Journal of Project Management, 33 (1), 126–139. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.03.002

Kluge, R., Stein, M., Varró, G., Schürr, A., Hollick, M., Mühlhäuser, M. (2017). A systematic approach to constructing incremental topology control algorithms using graph transformation. Journal of Visual Languages & Computing, 38, 47–83. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvlc.2016.10.003

Todorović, M. L., Petrović, D. Č., Mihić, M. M., Obradović, V. L., Bushuyev, S. D. (2015). Project success analysis framework: A knowledge-based approach in project management. International Journal of Project Management, 33 (4), 772–783. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.10.009

Biloshchytskyi, A., Kuchansky, A., Biloshchytska, S., Dubnytska, A. (2017). Conceptual model of automatic system of near duplicates detection in electronic documents. 2017 14th International Conference The Experience of Designing and Application of CAD Systems in Microelectronics (CADSM). doi: https://doi.org/10.1109/cadsm.2017.7916155

Ma, F., Rudenko, S., Kolesnikova, K. (2014). Management of the Image of the Educational Institution. Jinan, 84.


GOST Style Citations


Rehacek I. P. Application and usage of the standards for project management and their comparison // Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences. 2017. Vol. 12, Issue (4). P. 994–1002.

Managing Successful Programmes. URL: https://www.itgovernance.co.uk/shop/product/managing-successful-programmes-2011-edition

The GPM®Global P5TM Standard forSustainabilityin Project Management. Ver. 1.5. GPM Global. URL: https://www.greenprojectmanagement.org/the-p5-standard

Qureshi S. M., Kang C. Analysing the organizational factors of project complexity using structural equation modelling // International Journal of Project Management. 2015. Vol. 33, Issue 1. P. 165–176. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.04.006 

PM2 project management methodology guide. Luxembourg, 2016. 147 p. doi: http://doi.org/10.2799/957700

A method for the identification of scientists' research areas based on a cluster analysis of scientific publications / Biloshchytskyi A., Kuchansky A., Andrashko Y., Biloshchytska S., Kuzka O., Shabala Y., Lyashchenko T. // Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies. 2017. Vol. 5, Issue 2 (89). P. 4–11. doi: https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2017.112323 

Drozd J., Drozd A. Models, methods and means as resources for solving challenges in co-design and testing of computer systems and their components // The International Conference on Digital Technologies 2013. 2013. doi: https://doi.org/10.1109/dt.2013.6566307 

Wu C., Nikulshin V. Method of thermoeconomical optimization of energy intensive systems with linear structure on graphs // International Journal of Energy Research. 2000. Vol. 24, Issue 7. P. 615–623. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/1099-114x(20000610)24:7<615::aid-er608>3.0.co;2-p 

A method to evaluate the scientific activity quality of HEIs based on a scientometric subjects presentation model / Biloshchytskyi A., Myronov O., Reznik R., Kuchansky A., Andrashko Y., Paliy S., Biloshchytska S. // Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies. 2017. Vol. 6, Issue 2 (90). P. 16–22. doi: https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2017.118377 

Verkhivker G. The use of chemical recuperation of heat in a power plant // Energy. 2004. Vol. 29, Issue 3. P. 379–388. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2003.10.010 

Development of the model of interaction among the project, team of project and project environment in project system / Kolesnіkov O., Gogunskii V., Kolesnikova K., Lukianov D., Olekh T. // Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies. 2016. Vol. 5, Issue 9 (83). P. 20–26. doi: https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2016.80769 

Developing a system for the initiation of projects using a Markov chain / Gogunskii V., Bochkovsky А., Moskaliuk A., Kolesnikov O., Babiuk S. // Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies. 2017. Vol. 1, Issue 3 (85). P. 25–32. doi: https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2017.90971 

"Lifelong learning" is a new paradigm of personnel training in enterprises / Gogunskii V., Kolesnikov O., Kolesnikova K., Lukianov D. // Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies. 2016. Vol. 4, Issue 2 (82). P. 4–10. doi: https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2016.74905 

Demin D. Improvement of approaches to the construction of the training process of sportsmen, considered within the framework of the realization of informal education processes // ScienceRise: Pedagogical Education. 2017. Issue 9 (17). P. 28–46. doi: https://doi.org/10.15587/2519-4984.2017.111110 

Development of the Markov model of a project as a system of role communications in a team / Lukianov D., Bespanskaya-Paulenka K., Gogunskii V., Kolesnikov O., Moskaliuk A., Dmitrenko K. // Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies // Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies. 2017. Vol. 3, Issue 3 (87). P. 21–28. doi: https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2017.103231 

Durand G., Belacel N., LaPlante F. Graph theory based model for learning path recommendation // Information Sciences. 2013. Vol. 251. P. 10–21. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2013.04.017 

Kaiser M. G., El Arbi F., Ahlemann F. Successful project portfolio management beyond project selection techniques: Understanding the role of structural alignment // International Journal of Project Management. 2015. Vol. 33, Issue 1. P. 126–139. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.03.002 

A systematic approach to constructing incremental topology control algorithms using graph transformation / Kluge R., Stein M., Varró G., Schürr A., Hollick M., Mühlhäuser M. // Journal of Visual Languages & Computing. Vol. 38. P. 47–83. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvlc.2016.10.003 

Project success analysis framework: A knowledge-based approach in project management / Todorović M. L., Petrović D. Č., Mihić M. M., Obradović V. L., Bushuyev S. D. // International Journal of Project Management. 2015. Vol. 33, Issue 4. P. 772–783. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.10.009 

Conceptual model of automatic system of near duplicates detection in electronic documents / Biloshchytskyi A., Kuchansky A., Biloshchytska S., Dubnytska A. // 2017 14th International Conference The Experience of Designing and Application of CAD Systems in Microelectronics (CADSM). 2017. doi: https://doi.org/10.1109/cadsm.2017.7916155 

Ma F., Rudenko S., Kolesnikova K. Management of the Image of the Educational Institution: monograph. Jinan, 2014. 84 p.







Copyright (c) 2018 Varvara Piterska, Olexii Kolesnikov, Dmytro Lukianov, Kateryna Kolesnikova, Viktor Gogunskii, Tetiana Olekh, Anatoliy Shakhov, Sergey Rudenko

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

ISSN (print) 1729-3774, ISSN (on-line) 1729-4061