Analysis of detection of ecological hazard based on computing the measures of current recurrence of ecosystem states

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2018.147508

Keywords:

ecosystem, hazardous ecological state, recurrence plot, measure of recurrence, current recurrence in window

Abstract

Analysis of the early detection of an environmental hazard in ecosystems was performed. New measures of the current recurrence of states that allow their use for the early detection of an environmental hazard in ecosystems were proposed. Calculations of the measures under consideration are based on the distribution of the known measure of global recurrence for the case of the calculation of measures of current recurrence in moving square windows. In this case, one of the measures under consideration is based on the implementation of a moving square window along the main diagonal of the recurrent plot of state. Another measure is based on the use of a moving window of the specified size along the horizontal (vertical) axis of recurrence plots. The latter made it possible to obtain a constructive current measure for calculation of recurrence to identify dangerous states in ecosystems based on the temporal localization of zero recurrence of states at minimum sizes of a moving window. In accordance with the proposed measures of current recurrence, the possibilities of using the measures for the early identification of an environmental hazard for gas medium with the ignition center of combustible material, such as alcohol, were analyzed. It was shown that the window measure of current recurrence at a horizontal moving small­size window is the most suitable of the considered measures. It was found that for such a measure, window sizes must be in the range from 5×5 to 15×15 counts. In this case, the values of region ε of neighborhood for the considered states must be selected in the range from 0.01 to 0.15. It was determined theoretically and experimentally that the specified measure of current recurrence of states with a horizontally moving window can be considered as a structural current measure of recurrence to ensure a reliable early detection of hazardous states in different ecosystems

Author Biographies

Boris Pospelov, National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine Chernyshevska str., 94, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61023

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

Research Center

Yuliya Danchenko, Kharkiv National University of Civil Engineering and Architecture Sumska str., 40, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61002

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of General Chemistry

Ilgar Firdovsi Dadashov, Academy of the ministry of Emergency Situations of Azerbaijanian Republic Elman Gasimov str., 8, Hovsan settlement, Baku, Azerbaijan, AZ1089

PhD

Department of the special disciplines and safety of vital functions

Stanislav Skliarov, National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine Chernyshevska str., 94, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61023

PhD

Research Center

Stella Gornostal, National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine Chernyshevska str., 94, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61023

PhD

Department of Fire Prevention in Settlements

Oleksandr Cherkashyn, National University of Civil Defence of Ukraine Chernyshevska str., 94, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61023

PhD

Department of fire and rescue training

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Published

2018-11-16

How to Cite

Pospelov, B., Danchenko, Y., Dadashov, I. F., Skliarov, S., Gornostal, S., & Cherkashyn, O. (2018). Analysis of detection of ecological hazard based on computing the measures of current recurrence of ecosystem states. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 6(10 (96), 6–13. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2018.147508