DOI: https://doi.org/10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v40i6.2018.151054

Earthquake forecasting by the results of the seismic signal trend analysis

V. V. Nagornyi

Abstract


In the article, using the example of earthquakes that occurred in Japan in 2003 and 2011, the results of the method verification proposed by the author for destructive earthquakes prediction are given. The method involves the identification of zones with a seismic signal level higher in relation to the surrounding areas, the construction of a seismic signals total trend registered at each of the seismic stations located in this zone. The total trend is approximated by the trend model. The model is designed in such a way that the predicted parameters: the time of the earthquake and the coordinates of its epicenter are included in its mathematical structure. These parameters are determined in the parametric identification process of the model based on the results of seismic signals regular monitoring performed on each of the reference seismic stations. Further, on the basis of these data and the known strength of the reference earthquake, the strength of the future earthquake is determined. Verification showed that the prediction of earthquakes, carried out in accordance with the method considered in the article, has a high degree of reliability and stable repeatability of the forecast throughout the entire period of observation of the developing earthquake. This property of the technique is explained by the fact that it is based on the study of the dynamics of the change in the prognostic trait, and not on the generally accepted current consideration of the current (static) value of the trait. Positive results of verification served as the basis for the approbation of the method, which allowed predicting the time, coordinates of the epicenter and the strength  of the ripening earthquakes in the Nanking Valley area.


Keywords


earthquake prediction; seismic signal level; reference seismic station; earthquake epicenter; earthquake strength; trend of prognostic sign; approbation and verification of the forecast

References


Dovbnya, B. V. (2014). Electromagnetic precursors of earthquakes and their frequency. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal, 36(3), 160—165. https://doi.org/10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v36i3.2014.116069 (in Russian).

Zavyalov, A. D. (2006). Medium-term forecast of earthquakes: basics, methodology, implementation. Moscow: Nauka (in Russian).

Zamanova, A. H. (2014). The structure of subduction zone of the South Caspian basin and seismicity. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal, 36(6), 188—196. https://doi.org/10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v36i6.2014.111065 (in Russian).

Kulchitskiy, V. E. (2014).Valuation of extinction parameters of anisotropic macro-seismic wave intensities. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal, 36(2), 138—149. https://doi.org/10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v36i2.2014.116127 (in Russian).

Lyubushin, A. A. (2014). Prognostic properties of stochastic variations of geophysical parameters. Mezhdisciplinarnyj nauchnyj i prikladnoj zhurnal «Biosfera», 6(4), 319—338 (in Russian).

Malytskyy, D. V., Hrytsay, O. D., Muyla, O. O., Kutniv, O. I., & Kozlovskyy, E. M. (2014). Specification of mechanisms of earthquake sources in the Carpathian region. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal, 36(4), 118—135. https://doi.org/10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v36i4.2014.116032 (in Ukrainian).

Mishin, S. V., Panfilov, A. A., & Khasanov, I. M. (2018). Isostasy and seismisity. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal, 40(2), 154—163. https://doi.org/10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v40i2.2018.128937 (in Russian).

Nikolayevskiy, V. N., & Sobisevich, L. E. (2015).The nature of bifocal source of the earthquake and precursors of the blow. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal, 37(4), 51—74. https://doi.org/10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v37i4.2015.111125 (in Russian).

Nagornyi, V. V. (2018a). Pat. 124943 UA. The method of long-term prediction of coordinates of the epicenter of the next earthquake. Date of publication 25.04.2018. Bull. No. 8 (in Ukrainian).

Nagornyi, V. V. (2018b). Pat. 126808 UA. A method of forecasting the time of a regular earthquake. Date of publication 07.10.2018. Bull. No. 13 (in Ukrainian).

Nagornyi, V. V. (2018c). Pat. 127519 UA. Method of predicting the strength of the predicted earthquake. Date of publication 10.01.2018. Bul. No. 2568. (in Ukrainian). Rikitake, Т. (1979). Prediction of earthquakes. Moscow: Mir (in Russian).

Rixter, C. F. (1963). Eelementary seismology. Moscow: Izdatelstvo Inostrannoy Literatury (in Russian).

Rokityansky, I. I., Babak, V. I., & Tereshyn, A. V. (2015).Variations of geomagnetic response functions in Japan. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal, 37(4), 126—138. https://doi.org/10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v37i4.2015.111133 (in Russian).

Sobisevich, L. E., Starostenko, V. I., Rogozhyn, E. A., Lutikov, A. I., Sobisevich, A. L., Kanonidi, K. H., Kendzera, A. V. & Oryuk, M. I.(2012). Abnormal geophysical and seismotectonic processes observed during the period of preparation and development of the earthquake with a magnetude of 8,8 Maule 2010 (Chile). Geofizicheskiy zhurnal, 38(6), 25—39. https://doi.org/10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v38i6.2016.91957 (in Russian).

Stepanov, R. N. (1948). Spherical trigonometry. Moscow-Leningrad: State publ. technical and theoretical literature (in Russian).

Tsvetkova, T. A., Bugaenko, I. V., & Zaets, L. N. (2018). Earthquake in central Italy and velocities structure of the mantle. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal, 40(2), 48—66. https://doi.org/10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v40i2.2018.128929 (in Russian).

Shapka, V. M, Lyaschuk, O. I., Andrushchenko, Yu. A., Kornienko, I. V., & Grabchenko, V. V.(2016). The system of early warning on strong sub-crustal earthquakes of the Vrancea zone. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal 38(3), 138—144. https://doi.org/10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v38i3.2016.107788 (in Ukrainian).

Yurkov, Yu. F., & Gittis, V. G. (2005). On the connection of seismicity with the phases of tidal waves. Fizika Zemli, (4), 4—15 (in Russian).




Creative Commons License
Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.