Modeling the Impact of Environmental Investments on the Environment State

The object of research is the level of environmental pollution by the example of Ukraine. The paper investigates the relationship between the volume of capital investment and a decrease in the level of environmental pollution. The methodological basis of the study is the fundamental foundations of economic theory, environmental protection, environmental economics, statistics and econometrics. To develop a statistical model of the relationship between environmental investment and environmental pollution, a correlation analysis is carried out using the paired regression equation, where a hypothesis is put forward that the relationship between all possible values of factorial and effective indicators is linear. The parameters of the constructed models are estimated by the least squares method and the statistical significance of the models is checked.<br><br>The research results indicate the presence of a close inverse relationship between the volumes of capital investments for the protection of atmospheric air on the volume of emissions of pollutants into the air. This is due to the fact that the linear correlation coefficient is:<br><br>–0.826, and the value of the coefficient of determination (0.6818) shows the decisive influence of capital investments on emissions. Checking the statistical significance of the model makes it possible to recognize the constructed econometric model of the effect on the volume of emissions of pollutants into the air as statistically reliable. The resulting model can be used to predict the volume of emissions of pollutants into the air and provides an opportunity to address issues of optimizing investment and environmental policies.<br><br>On the other hand, an econometric model is obtained for the effect on the amount of recycled waste, which is characterized by a noticeable direct relationship (linear correlation coefficient – 0.595) and shows that only 35.44 % of recycled waste is directly related to the volume of capital investments. Checking the statistical significance shows the unreliability of the model of influence on the amount of disposed waste. Although the resulting model can’t be used for forecasting, it can be used in further studies to identify other factors influencing waste disposal.


Introduction
Environmental protection requires adequate financial support for the implementation of appropriate environ mental programs and resource and energy saving projects. In terms of content, financial support of a legally defined set of measures aimed at creating a basis for achieving certain goals, and the goals in the field of environmental protection are to reduce the level of environmental pol lution and rationalize the use of natural resources.
A number of scientific works are devoted to the study of the influence of investment on the intensity of en vironmental pollution. So, in [1], a technique is descri bed for the quantitative determination of the quality of the environment by determining the integral index. The study [2] developed a simulation model for assessing the impact of environmental investments on the quality of the environment. Some researchers carry out a comparative analysis of the environmental impact of various portfo lios of investment funds [3]. The likelihood that foreign direct investment reduces the intensity of environmental pollution is confirmed in studies [4][5][6], which indicate that investment allows the use of advanced technologies that are more favorable for the environment. The metho dology for assessing the effectiveness of municipalities' current expenditures on environmental protection is de scribed in [7][8][9]. Considered developments of scientists are the basis for further research, namely, modeling the impact of environmental investment on the state of the environment.
The above mentioned actualizes the problem of studying the influence of the volume of ecological investment on the state of the natural environment. Therefore, the object of this research is environmental pollution by the example of Ukraine. And the aim of research is to determine the impact of environmental investment on the state of envi ronmental pollution.

Methods of research
To achieve this aim, a generalization of scientific pub lications was used to study the impact of financing of environmental protection measures on the state of the environment. The paper uses the method of correlation ISSN 2664-9969 analysis to build models of the relationship between the phenomena under study. The dependencies were obtained on the basis of actual statistical data on the volume and structure of expenditures for environmental protection, emissions of pollutants into the air and waste genera tion [10]. A graphical method was used in the processing of statistical data to visualize the studied indicators and display the results of the study.
According to a literature review, the relationship bet ween indicators characterizing the state of environmental pollution and environmental investments can be significant and insignificant, as well as positive and negative.
In the course of the study, a correlation analysis was carried out using the paired regression equation, where a hypothesis was put forward that the relationship between all possible values of factorial and effective indicators is linear. This allows to develop a model of the impact of environmental investments on the state of environmental pollution. The parameters of the constructed models are estimated by the least squares method. The statistical sig nificance of the models was tested using the coefficient of determination and Fisher's test.

Research results and discussion
By 2019, enterprises, organizations and institutions of Ukraine spent 1692.56 million USD on environmental protection, of which operating expenses -1063.48 mil lion USD and capital investments 629.09 million USD, which is 37.17 % of total spending. The largest share of capital investments in environmental protection is the cost of waste management -35 % and the protection of atmospheric air and prevention of climate change -26 %. This indicates the main environmental problems of the state (Fig. 1).
To achieve the set objectives, the modeling of the im pact of capital investments in areas that have the largest specific weight in the total volume on the amount of recycled waste and the volume of emissions of pollutants into the air was carried out. At the same time, it was taken into account that the development of investments takes some time, therefore, data on the volume of capital investments for 2014-2018 were used. Volumes of emis sions of pollutants into the air and the amount of recycled waste in 2015-2019 are shown in Table 1.
Hypothesis is put forward for data in Table 1: H 1 : r xy ≠ 0, the linear relationship between variables.
The obtained results of the corresponding calculations carried out using MS Excel are given in Table 2 and Fig. 2.
The characteristics of the obtained models of the in fluence of capital investments on the amount of recycled waste and the volume of pollutant emissions into the air allow to accept the hypothesis H 1 : r xy ≠ 0, there is a linear relationship between the variables.

Conclusions
Based on the simulation of the impact of environ mental investment on the state of the environment, the following conclusions can be drawn: 1   In the future, a study will be carried out on the ways and directions of increasing the dependence of the amount of utilized household and similar waste on the volume of capital investments in waste management.