DOI: https://doi.org/10.15587/2312-8372.2018.132566

The use of econometric models in the analysis of the volume of pollutants

Irina Varlamova

Abstract


The object of research is the use of econometric models in the analysis of the volume of pollutants, the release of finished products and the interrelation of these indicators. The application of existing models of analysis does not give a real picture of the interrelations and influencing factors. One of the most problematic places is that the application of existing methods does not provide the opportunity to carry out a forward-looking analysis, and characterizes only the state of the object of research in a retrospective analysis.

In the study, the matrix equations of the interbranch balance model, the least squares method, and power regression are applied in the compilation of search forecasts.

It is determined that the problem of environmental safety predetermines the need to change the development model in order to predict the future and create the most effective means of human survival, outline ways and define the principles for a way out of a deep crisis. It is justified that the new development model defines sustainable development as a form of civilizational development, and environmental sustainability as the basis of environmental security. It is proved that the provision of an appropriate level of sustainability and environmental safety requires certain costs, the effect of which may not be profit, namely the reduction of environmental negative consequences. Based on the use of the econometric toolkit (regression analysis), a relationship is established between environmental sustainability and indicators that can influence the level of environmental sustainability. The regression model is constructed showing an inverse relationship between the index of sustainable development and GDP per capita and the irect relationship between environmental expenditures and EPI. Based on the obtained results, the author concludes that the financial factor, that is, the costs of protecting the environment, plays a leading role in ensuring an appropriate level of environmental sustainability. As a result of the study, a direct relationship between the gross output of products and the volume of pollutants, characterizing the correlation coefficient of 0.795, is determined. And also the reliability of 95 % of the regression dependence of emissions in the atmospheric air from the volume of aggregate output is proved.


Keywords


environmental development; environmental safety; environment; regression model; level of pollutants

References


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GOST Style Citations


Zgurovskiy M. Z., Gvishiani A. D. Global'noe modelirovanie protsessov ustoychivogo razvitiya v kontekste kachestva i bezopasnosti zhizni lyudey (20057 2007/2008 gody). Kyiv: Politekhnika, 2008. 331 p.

Aktualni problemy rehionalnoi polityky v Ukraini ta shliakhy yikh rozviazannia / Danylyshyn B. M. et al. // Ukraina: heohrafichni problemy staloho rozvytku. 2004. Vol. 3. P. 10–19.

Melnyk L. H. Poniattia pro stalyi rozvytok // Osnovy stiikoho rozvytku. Sumy: Universytetska knyha, 2007. P. 411–442.

Rudenko L. H., Lisovskyi S. A. Kontseptsiia staloho (zbalansovanoho) rozvytku ta yii spryiniattia v Ukraini // Ukrainskyi heohrafichnyi zhurnal. 2005. No. 4. P. 3–10.

Vakhovych I. M. Finansova polityka staloho rozvytku rehionu: metodolohiia formuvannia ta mekhanizmy realizatsii: monograph. Lutsk: Nadstyria, 2007. 496 p.

Stukalo N. V. Hlobalni vymiry staloho rozvytku // Ekonomichni nauky. Seriia «Ekonomichna teoriia ta ekonomichna istoriia». 2010. No. 7 (28). Part 2. P. 33–41.

Medouz D., Randers Y., Medouz D. Predely rosta. 30 let spustya. Moscow: IKTS «Akademkniga», 2007. 342 p.

Deili H. Poza zrostanniam. Ekonomichna teoriia staloho rozvytku. Kyiv: Intelsfera, 2002. 312 p.

Bilous O. H., Matseiko Yu. M. Hlobalna perspektyva i stalyi rozvytok: monograph. Kyiv: MAUP, 2006. 492 p.

Rassadnykova S. I. Stratehiia i taktyka ekolohizatsii investytsiinoi diialnosti // Naukovyi visnyk Natsionalnoho lisotekhnichnoho universytetu Ukrainy. 2005. Vol. 15.6. P. 396–402.

Bashkalova O. V. Problemi ekologicheskoy bezopasnosti Rossii // Vestnik MGIMO-Universiteta. 2015. No. 3 (42). URL: www.vestnik.mgimo.ru/sites/default/files/pdf/013_bashlakovaoi.pdf

Grigorieva G. E. Ekologicheskaya kul'tura, kak vazhnyy element v razvitii sovremennogo obshhestva // Molodoy uchenyi. 2011. Vol. 1, No. 4. P. 122–124.

Nedelko V. M. Regressionnye modeli v zadache klassifikatsii // Sibirskiiy zhurnal industrial'noy matematiki. 2014. Vol. 17, No. 1. P. 86–98.

Country Profile Ukraine // Environmental Performance Index. URL: http://archive.epi.yale.edu/epi/country-profile/ukraine

Statystychnyi zbirnyk «Dovkillia Ukrainy» za 2015 r. Vykydy zabrudniuiuchykh rechovyn ta dioksydu vuhletsiu v atmosferne povitria. Kyiv: Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy, 2016. 242 p.

GDP per capita (current US$) // World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files. URL: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=UA&name_desc=true&view=chart







Copyright (c) 2018 Irina Varlamova

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ISSN (print) 2226-3780, ISSN (on-line) 2312-8372