Main characteristics and prognosis of development of HIV epidemic in Dnipropetrovsk region.

Abstract

The epidemiological situation on HIV infection in Ukraine remains complicated due to high morbidity and mortality, which requires a comprehensive study of this problem. Purpose of work: to clarify the main patterns and characteristics of prevalence of HIV infection in Dnipropetrovsk region and develop a forecast for changes in the main epidemic indicators. The study was based on reports from the Public Health Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine and Dnipropetrovsk Regional Center for AIDS Prevention and Control. (2005-2017). To determine the main trends of development and forecasting the epidemiological situation, methods of analysis of time series with the calculation of chain growth rates and regression analysis were used. Analysis of the number of newly registered cases of HIV infection and AIDS over a 13-year period (2005-2017) showed an increase in figures for HIV by 1.5 times,  for AIDS - by 2.4 times in Ukraine and in Dnipropetrovsk region – by 1.9 times and 3.0 times, respectively. A significant prevalence of HIV/AIDS incidence rate in Dnipropetrovsk region as compared with national indicators in some years of the study and on average over the entire observation period was determined – 92.8±4.2 cases of HIV infection per 100 thousand and 45.2±5.2 cases of AIDS per 100 thousand in the region versus 41.0±1.4 and 16.1±1.6 per 100 thousand of the population in Ukraine (p<0.001). According to prognostic algorithms, in Dnipropetrovsk region until 2020, the annual AIDS incidence rate is expected to increase to 80.7±2.56 cases per 100 thousand people; AIDS mortality to 33.7±0.99 per 100 thousand people, which also predicts an increase in the incidence and mortality associated with opportunistic infections. A calculated forecast of HIV incidence rates and newly registered AIDS cases in Ukraine and the region for the coming years may be useful for predicting the number of opportunistic infections and calculating the needs for hospitalization and treatment of HIV/AIDS patients.