Prevalence of premature birth in conditions of global warming
Keywords:global warming, premature birth, infant mortality, adverse effects of pregnancy
The dynamics and likely associative link between global warming and the prevalence of preterm births in Ukraine over the years 2009-2018 was studied. to form modern ideas about the prognosis and prevention of this pathology. Data on medical care for pregnant women, mothers and parturients and adverse effects of pregnancy on preterm birth (form 21) for the period 2009-2018 were obtained from the municipal non-profit enterprise "Ternopil Regional Center of Public Health of Ternopil Regional Council". The correlation between the number of premature births per 100 births according to the average annual air temperature according to the Global Historical Climatology Network from the US Department of Ocean and Atmospheric Research in the climatically homogeneous regions of Ukraine was estimated. Predictive analysis of time series was performed by the method of integrated auto-regression of the moving average (ARIMA). The model error was estimated by calculating the absolute percentage error of the mean (MAPE). Statistical processing of materials was performed using programs Statistica 6.0 (StatSoft, USA) and open statistical package "R". The study meets modern requirements of moral and ethical standards regarding the provisions of legislative acts of Ukraine. Analysis of these reports of women's counseling shows an increase in the average number of preterm births from 2.88 per 100 births in the total number of births in Ukraine – 491445 in 2009 to 3.33, per 100 births in the total number of 309191 in 2018, which testifies to a significant increase in premature births in our country. Since 2009, there has been an annual, varying degree of increase in average annual air temperature in Ukraine. As a result of the correlation analysis, a significant strong direct correlation was established between the average level of premature birth and the average annual air temperature in Ukraine (r=0.84, p<0.05). Regression analysis revealed a significant increase in the number of premature births (per 100 births) in 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 10 climatically homogeneous regions and a tendency to increase in, respectively, 3, 4, 9, 11 and 12 climatically homogeneous regions of Ukraine. Based on the analysis of data on the average annual air temperature in Ukraine for 2009-2018, the average annual air temperature in Ukraine is projected to increase by 0.3 ° С in 3 years (MAPE <10%, p<0.05). The annual number of premature births is expected to increase (cases per 100 births) in 3 years by 0.4 cases per 100 births (MAPE <10%, p <0.05). In the context of global warming, the number of negative consequences of pregnancy is increasing, namely idiopathic premature termination of pregnancy with the birth of premature infants. Strong correlations have been established between the annual number of premature births and the average annual air temperature in Ukraine. Regression models of preterm birth showed a significant increase in 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 10 climatically homogeneous regions and a tendency to increase in 3, 4, 9, 11 and 12 climatically homogeneous regions. The annual number of premature births in Ukraine is projected to increase by 2023 by 20 cases per 100 births compared to 2018. The strategy for preventing premature births and related adverse effects of pregnancy should include the identification of global warming as a risk factor for increasing level of this pathology.
Antomonov MYu. [Mathematical processing and analysis of medical and biological data]. 2-nd ed. Kyiv: MITS «Medinform»; 2018. p. 579. Russian.
Shestopalov AE, Tokarev ES, Samoilov AS, et al. [Diagnosis and general principles of correction of nutritional and metabolic status in highly qualified athletes]. Methodical recommendations. Moskva; 2015.p. 67. Russian. Available from: https://docplayer.ru/44777006-Diagnostika-i-obshchie-principy-korrekcii-nutritivno-metabolicheskogo-statusa-u-sportsmenov-vysokoy-kvalifikacii.html
Kuznietsova OT. [Adequacy and balance of nutrition. Methods of calculating energy consumption and evaluation of individual nutrition]. Metodychni vkazivky do praktychnykh zaniat. Rivne: NUVHP; 2019. p. 44. Ukrainian. Available from: http://ep3.nuwm.edu.ua/15128/1/09-02-33%20%281%29.pdf
Skurikhina IM, Volgareva MN. [Chemical composition of food products: directory]. Moskva: Agropromizdat;1987. p. 358. Russian.
Margolis LM, Rood J, Champagne C, Young AJ, Castellani JW. Energy balance and body composition during us army special forces training. Appl. Physiol. Nutr. Metab. 2013 Apr;38(4):396-400. doi: https//doi.org/10.1139/apnm-2012-0323
Margolis LM, Crombie AP, McClung HL, McGraw SM, Rood JC, Montain SJ, Young AJ. Energy Requirements of US Army Special Operation Forces During Military Training. Nutrients. 2014 May 12;6(5):1945-55. doi: https//doi.org/10.3390/nu6051945
Barringer ND, Pasiakos SM, McClung HL, Crombie AP, Margolis LM. Prediction equation for esti¬mating total daily energy requirements of special operations personnel. Journal of the International Society of Sports Nutrition. 2018 Apr 5;15:15. doi: https//doi.org/10.1186/s12970-018-0219-x
Deputat YuN, Ivanko OM, Savytskyi VLб et all. Research of the actual energy consumption of the military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to substantiate the correction of their daily diet. Wiadomości Lekarskie. 2021;74(3p.II):684-9. doi: https//doi.org/10.36740/WLek202103222
Westerterp KR. Physical activity and physical activity induced energy expenditure in humans: Measurement, determinants, and effects. Front. Physiol. 2013 Apr 26;4:90. doi: https//doi.org/10.3389/fphys.2013.00090
How to Cite
Copyright (c) 2021 Medicni perspektivi (Medical perspectives)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Submitting manuscript to the journal "Medicni perspektivi" the author(s) agree with transferring copyright from the author(s) to publisher (including photos, figures, tables, etc.) editor, reproducing materials of the manuscript in the journal, Internet, translation into other languages, export and import of the issue with the author’s article, spreading without limitation of their period of validity both on the territory of Ukraine and other countries. This and other mutual duties of the author and all co-authors separately and editorial board are secured by written agreement by special form to use the article, the sample of which is presented on the site.
Author signs a written agreement and sends it to Editorial Board simultaneously with submission of the manuscript.