Predicting the dynamics of heart rate variability in patients with type 1 diabetes against improving glycemic control

Abstract

The aim of the study: to analyze the effect of improvement of glycemic control on heart rate variability changes in patients with type 1 diabetes against the background of insulin therapy correction and to predict this dynamics based on the parameters of continuous glucose monitoring. We examined 49 patients with the level of glycosylated hemoglobin ≥7% and <10% without late diabetic complications. The average age – 32.0 (21.5; 38.0) years, the average disease duration – 9.5 (5.0; 17.5) years. The study was based on the simultaneous registration of heart rate variability and continuous glucose monitoring before and 3 months after correction of insulin therapy. Logistic regression analysis and ROC-analysis were used to predict the changes. After 3 months, the patients had significant decrease in the level of glycosylated hemoglobin, glycose variability, and a decrease in the frequency of hypoglycemic episodes. Heart rate variability increased in 73.5% of persons. The presence of hypoglycemia, standard deviation of blood glucose levels and glomerular filtration rate after treatment turned out to be prognostic factors for the predicting improvement in heart rate variability (the proportion of correct prediction of the patient's actual belonging to one or another prognostic group was 76.39%). Based on the calculation of the theoretical values of the positive result probability using the logistic equation, a detailed scale for predicting changes in heart rhythm variability for type 1 diabetes patients was proposed: up to 0.07 – a low probability of a positive result; 0.07-0.29 – the probability of a positive result is below average; 0.29-0.51 – a moderate probability of a positive result; 0.51-0.90 – high probability of a positive result; more than 0.90 – a very high probability of a positive result. We found that improvement of glycemic control leads to an increase in both frequency and time characteristics of heart rate variability. The increase in the likelihood of improvement of heart rate variability in patients with type 1 diabetes was more likely to be associated with reduced glycose variability and fewer hypoglycemic episodes. We developed a predictive mathematical model of heart rate variability based on the continuous glucose monitoring parameters for type 1 diabetes with sensitivity of 88.0% and specificity 68.18%, AUC 0.739 (p=0.001).