Mortality forecast from gastroduodenal ulcer disease for different gender and age population groups in Ukraine.

Authors

  • I. D. Duzhiy
  • S. O. Muntyan
  • V. Yu. Dubnitskiy
  • S. V. Kharchenko
  • V. A. Smianov

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26641/2307-0404.2016.1.64260

Keywords:

forecast, mortality, ulcer disease, population

Abstract

Until 2030 theulcermortalitywillhaveagrowingtrendasestimatedbytheWorldHealthOrganization. Detectionofcountriesandpopulationgroupswithhighrisksfortheulcermortalityispossibleusingforecast method. The authors madeaforecastofmortalityratefromcomplicatedulcerdiseaseinmalesandfemalesandtheiragegroups (15-24, 25-34, 35-54, 55-74, over 75, 15 - over 75) in our country. ThestudyincludeddataoftheWorldHealthOrganizationDatabase from 1991 to 2012. The work analyzed absolute all-Ukrainian numbers of persons of both genders died from the ulcer causes (К25-К27 coded by the 10th International Diseases Classification). The relative mortality per 100 000 of alive persons of the same age was calculated denovo. Theanalysisofdistributionlawsandtheirestimationpresentsatrendofgrowthoftherelativemortality. Aremarkableincreaseofdeathsfromtheulcerdiseaseisobservedinmalesandfemalesoftheageafter 55 years old. After the age of 75 years this trend is more expressed.

Author Biographies

I. D. Duzhiy

Department of General Surgery, Radiology and Phtisiology
Troyistka str., 48, Sumy, 40022, Ukraine

S. O. Muntyan

SE «Dnipropetrovsk medical academy of Health Ministry of Ukraine»
Dzerzhinsky str., 9, Dnipropetrovsk, 49044, Ukraine

V. Yu. Dubnitskiy

Kharkiv Institute of Banking
Peremogy аv., 55, Kharkov, 61000, Ukraine

S. V. Kharchenko

Department of General Surgery, Radiology and Phtisiology
Troyistka str., 48, Sumy, 40022, Ukraine

V. A. Smianov

Department of General Surgery, Radiology and Phtisiology
Troyistka str., 48, Sumy, 40022, Ukraine

References

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Published

2016-03-09

How to Cite

1.
Duzhiy ID, Muntyan SO, Dubnitskiy VY, Kharchenko SV, Smianov VA. Mortality forecast from gastroduodenal ulcer disease for different gender and age population groups in Ukraine. Med. perspekt. [Internet]. 2016Mar.9 [cited 2024Jun.17];21(1):134-9. Available from: https://journals.uran.ua/index.php/2307-0404/article/view/64260

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Section

SOCIAL MEDICINE