The impact of external labour migration on the demographic situation in Ukraine: trends, challenges and projections

Abstract

The article is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of the impact of external labour migration on the demographic situation in Ukraine in the context of modern socio-economic transformations caused by globalization processes, military actions, and internal instability. Amid a prolonged socio-economic crisis, low living standards, insufficient job availability, and weak social support for the population, external labour migration has become a mass phenomenon with both positive and negative consequences for the country’s demographic structure.

The article outlines the main trends of Ukrainian labour migration over the past decade, particularly the directions of migration flows, the socio-demographic profile of migrants, the scale of emigration of the working-age population, and its impact on the age and gender structure of the population. The author draws attention to the demographic ageing of the population, declining birth rates, a growing proportion of elderly people, and a shortage of qualified labour, which hinders the socio-economic development of the country. Special attention is given to the phenomenon of “demographic fatigue” in regions with high emigration levels and the problem of social orphanhood, where children are left without parental care for extended periods.

The study considers the economic aspects of external labour migration: the influence of remittances on household incomes, the dependence of many family budgets on foreign earnings, and the issues of repatriation of migrants’ knowledge and experience. At the same time, the article highlights the risks of losing human capital, “brain drain”, and weakening of social ties with the state.

Based on an analysis of available statistical data, international reports, and sociological surveys, the author offers forecast scenarios for the development of Ukraine’s demographic situation if current migration trends persist. Strategic directions of state policy in the field of labour migration regulation and demographic recovery are proposed, including the creation of conditions for the return of migrants, development of the domestic labour market, stimulation of birth rates, and support for young families.