Prospects for the legal status of Ukrainian migrants after the end of temporary protection

Abstract

The article explores the future legal status of Ukrainian migrants in the European Union after the expiration of temporary protection, focusing on the challenges, risks, and potential transition mechanisms that may shape their position within European legal systems. Temporary protection has ensured broad access to residence, employment, education, healthcare, and social services, functioning as an effective emergency instrument during the mass displacement caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, this regime is inherently temporary and does not provide an automatic pathway to long-term or permanent residence, which creates substantial uncertainty as the end of temporary protection approaches.

The study analyses the current guarantees provided under EU law, identifies the main limitations that may complicate future transitions, and highlights structural disparities among Member States in the implementation of temporary protection. Particular attention is given to the risks of losing legal residence, reduced access to welfare systems, and increased vulnerability to irregular status for individuals unable to meet documentation or administrative requirements. The article also examines the principal legal pathways available after 2026, including national residence permits, international protection mechanisms, labour-market-based schemes, and options for long-term residency.

Drawing on recent European research, institutional reports, and policy analyses, the article outlines three realistic scenarios: extension or reactivation of temporary protection, transition to national legal regimes, and the emergence of mixed or hybrid solutions at the EU level. The conclusion emphasises the need for harmonised planning, coordinated documentation policies, and predictable transition models to ensure legal continuity and protect the rights of displaced Ukrainians in the long term.