Forecasting the Cumulative Distribution of Tropospheric Radio-Wave Attenuation Based on Long-Term Meteorological Observations

Abstract

The article investigates in detail the effect of rainfall on the attenuation of radio waves at millimetre-wave frequencies, a critical factor for ensuring the reliability and stability of fifth-generation (5G) communication systems. An important aspect is the analysis of tropospheric attenuation, which occurs when electromagnetic signals interact with atmospheric phenomena, particularly raindrops. This phenomenon significantly complicates data transmission at high frequencies, especially in urban environments with high traffic density, requiring careful consideration in network design. The study considers three main approaches to determining rainfall intensity dependence for the city of Kharkiv: the use of local meteorological measurements, analysis of data from various sources, and recommendations of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). Particular attention is paid to comparing the accuracy of these sources, which can differ significantly in terms of relevance, observation duration, geographical coverage, collection methodology, and level of generalisation. Given the possibility that local measurements may not be available, it is recommended to use ITU aggregated data, which is one of the most authoritative sources for engineering calculations. This provides sufficient accuracy for network design, enabling consideration of real atmospheric conditions. The results obtained allow us to select radio equipment parameters reasonably and determine the optimal frequency range, route length, and acceptable attenuation levels, which are important steps in creating modern wireless telecommunications systems. Such systems can operate under variable atmospheric conditions, increasing their reliability and efficiency. The proposed approach is helpful for engineers, researchers, and developers working to optimise next-generation networks in real-world climatic conditions. It improves design accuracy and reduces the risk of signal loss, ensuring stable, high-quality communication even in challenging weather conditions. Given the rapid development of telecommunications technologies, it is essential to consider atmospheric factors to ensure the safe and reliable operation of networks, especially in urban centres with high population density and traffic intensity. Thus, the study contributes to improving methods for predicting and adapting communication systems to changing atmospheric conditions, which is essential for the development of modern telecommunications infrastructures and for ensuring their long-term stable operation.