Nonlinear dynamics of geo-medium: transitional processes and critical phenomena
Within the limits of established views on geo-medium as an open nonlinear active hierarchically-heterogeneous system, an attempt has been made to analyze the processes in geo-systems. It has been noticed that the spontaneous seismo-acoustic and electromagnetic noise of lithospheric origin is a universal effect, produced by presence of diffusion. It is essential that spontaneous noise can be interpreted in terms of auto-vibrations, with characteristics determined by parameters of geo-medium. The problems of synergetics of the system are under consideration, as well as the role of chaos, including the weak one, in their behavior. Transitional dynamics of geo-systems is analyzed and the criteria of proximity of bifurcation of stationary regime. The fundamental property of geo-systems is accentuated – the presence of the stage of preparation of seismic events that is the evidence of reality of their forecast. However its realization is related to installation of adequate monitoring observation systems and methods of their processing while geophysicists are not ready yet. It is noticed that the solution of the problem of seismic events forecast is evidently connected with the results of projects but not the problems, which are usually tried to be solved within the limits of old but not new ideas.
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