Tornado statistics in Ukraine based on new data
Tornadoes are dangerous and difficult to forecast atmospheric phenomenon that may cause high economic and social losses. Therefore in the USA and Europe tornado receive more attention and tornadoes observation systems are actively expanding and improving. In the present paper; based on the new data of seven severe weather catalogs of Europe and former USSR a merged catalog was created containing 6298 tornado sighting records. On this basis the geographical distribution of recorded tornadoes of all types and intensities in Ukraine; Belarus; Moldova; Poland; Romania; Hungary and other European countries near Ukraine in 1119—2017 within 21—65 °E and 44—71 °N was mapped. The tornado geographic distribution in continental and moderate continental climate areas was shown to be approximately homogeneous and correlating with population density in the territories under consideration. A conclusion that in the low populated regions of Ukraine 90—95 % of destructive tornadoes with intensity EF1 and above remain unreported and are not included in the catalogs was obtained. This conclusion was confirmed by Earth’s remote sensing data; therefore the real quantity of tornadoes in Ukraine Should be approximately 10—20 times higher than the amount of events reported in the catalogs. Based on analysis of the merged catalog it was shown that catastrophic tornadoes with EF4—EF5 intensity may also emerge in Ukrainian territory. The geographic distribution of tornado emerging probability in Ukrainian territory was mapped. The probability of powerful destructive tornadoes with intensity EF1 and higher registration was also shown to be approximately homogeneous in all the territory of Ukraine. Based on geographic distribution of tornado observation frequency in Ukraine the average rate of tornado reporting in Ukraine was estimated to be 20.6 tornadoes per square degree per century; and for destructive tornadoes of EF1 intensity and higher; this frequency estimate is 4.3.
Full Text:PDF (Українська)
Internet-magazine Meteoweb.ru. Retrieved from http://meteoweb.ru.
Tornado in the territory of Russia; Kazakhstan; Ukraine and Belarus in 2013. (2014). Retrieved from http://earth-chronicles.ru/news/2014-01-09-57543.
Tornado in the territory of the Russian Federation and the countries of the former USSR in 2012. (2012). Retrieved from https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1Wdxk4vgK1TDAMGoi4Cul85jwuAE.
Safety Manual RB-022-01 “Recommendations for the assessment of the characteristics of the tornado for nuclear facilities” (approved by the decision of the Federal Atomic Energy Agency of the Russian Federation of December 28; 2001; No.17). Retrieved from http://meganorm.ru/Data2/1/4293852/4293852236.htm.
Steblyuk M. ².; 2013. Civil defence and civil protection: textbook. Kyiv: Znannia; 487p. (in Ukrainian).
Shikhov A. N.; Tarasov A. V.; 2016. Analysis of tornado emerging in forest regions of Russia derieved from Earth remote sounding data: Proceedings of III International conference “Regional problems of Earth remote sounding”. Krasnoyarsk: SFU; P. 346—349 (in Russian).
Antonescu B.; Schultz D. M.; Holzer A.; Groenemeijer P.; 2017. Tornadoes in Europe: An Underestimated Threat. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; 98(4); 713—728. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0171.1.
Bradford M.; 1999. Historical Roots of Modern Tornado Forecasts and Warnings. Weather and forecasting; 14(4); 484—491. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1999)014%3C0484:HROMTF%3E2.0.CO;2.
British & European Tornado Extremes. The Tornado & Storm Research Organisation; 2018. Retrieved from http://www.torro.org.uk/whirlwind_info.php.
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University; 2017. Gridded Population of the World; Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density; Revision 10. Palisades; NY: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.7927/H4DZ068D.
Dessens J.; Snow J. T.; 1989. Tornadoes in France. Weather and forecasting; 4; 110—132. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1989)004<0110: TIF>2.0.CO;2.
Dolce C.; 2014. The Deadliest Tornado in the World. Tornado News. The Weather Company. https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/deadliest-tornado-world-bangladesh-20140416.
Dotzek N.; Groenemeijer P.; Feuerstein B.; Holzer A. M.; 2009. Overview of ESSL’s severe convective storms research using the European Severe Weather Database ESWD. Atmos. Res.; 93; 575—586. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmo sres.2008.10.020.
European Severe Weather Database; 2013. Retrieved from https://www.eswd.eu.
Finch J.; Bikos D.; 2012. Russian tornado outbreak of 9 June 1984. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor.; 7(4); 1—28.
Finley J. P.; 1884. Intelligence from American scientific stations. Science; 3; 767—768.
Groenemeijer P.; Kühne A.; 2014. A Climatology of Tornadoes in Europe: Results from the European Severe Weather Database. Mon. Weather Rev.; 142(12); 4775—4790. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00107.1.
Heidorn K. C.; 2007. 1965 Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak Part I: The Beginning. The Weather Doctor. http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/events/1965palmsun_torn.htm.
Ravilious K.; 2018. Weather watch: Europe has a history of fatal tornadoes. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/apr/13/weatherwatch-europe-has-a-history-of-fatal-tornadoes.
Shikhov A.; Chernokulsky A.; 2018. A satellite-derived climatology of unreported tornadoes in forested regions of northeast Europe. Remote Sensing of Environment; 204; 553—567. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.10.002.
Stöckli R.; Vermote E.; Saleous N.; Simmon R.; Herring D.; 2005. The Blue Marble Next Generation — A true color earth dataset including seasonal dynamics from MODIS. Published by the NASA Earth Observatory. https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=73776.Retrieved 7.05.2018.
Taszarek M.; Brooks H. E.; 2015. Tornado Climatology of Poland. Mon. Weather Rev.; 143; 702—717. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-00185.1.
Tornado Facts; 2018. Retrieved from https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/tornadoes/.
Tornado Map; 2018. Retrieved from http://www.tornado-map.de.
Wurman J.; Kosiba K.; 2013. Fine scale Radar Observations of Tornado and Mesocyclone Structures. Weather and Forecasting; 28(5); 1157—1174. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00127.1.
Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.