DOI: https://doi.org/10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v42i5.2020.215085

About the influence of environmental conditions on the distribution of the SARS-CoV-19 virus in Ukraine

S. Boychenko, O. Holubka, V. Karamushka

Abstract


Taking into account that climate and atmospheric processes can, to a certain extent, affect viral epidemics, the dynamics of the rates of infection with the SARS-CoV-19 virus was analyzed in comparison with a number of climate factors (temperature, precipitation, humidity, etc.) in the territory Kiev, Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa and Khmelnytsky regions as well as the city of Kiev during April—August 2020. To assess the impact of environmental conditions on the process of virus infection, the index of confirmed cases (ICC) was introduced.It is shown that in the spring, in particular, in May, the ICC index increased with a cold snap and decreased with a warming. In summer, the ICC index decreased with an increase of temperature with a delay of infection by 5—7 days, which is apparently associated with the incubation period of the virus (5—14 days). In particular, there was no increase in ICC values at high temperatures (over 30 °C). The relative humidity of the atmosphere air and the dew point temperature are more closely related to the efficiency of virus transmission. Thus, in spring, with an increase in relative humidity, an increase in the values of the ICC index was observed, and vice versa, with a decrease in relative humidity, the ICC index decreased. In summer, at high air temperatures and fluctuations in relative humidity, the ICC index mainly decreased, with the exception of a few weather situations. A decrease in the amount of atmospheric precipitation in April-August 2020 in Ukraine affected the activity of aerosol transmission of viruses (air-dust transport prevailed). At the same time, it was found that an increase of the ICC index during rainy periods correlates with the number of days with precipitation (less — with the amount of precipitation), while there is a delay in the growth of infection rates by several days. Analysis of the possible effect of precipitation acidity on the survival of the SARS-CoV-19 virus indicates the absence of a significant effect of this factor on the dissemination of viral infection. The presented results of the analysis of data on infection with the SARS-CoV-19 virus in Ukraine indicate a certain dependence of this process on climatic factors and are important for the assessment of the risks of infection and related diseases.


Keywords


SARS-CoV-19 virus; climatic conditions; surface temperature; relative humidity; dew-point temperature; atmospheric precipitation; acidity

References


Boychenko, S.G., & Zabarna, О.G. (2019). Estimation of comfort of weather conditions and trends of their changes for the Kyiv region in the conditions of climate change. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal, 41(6), 128—143. https://doi.org/10.24028/gzh.0203‒3100.v41i6.2019.190071.

Holubka, O.S. (2013). The efficiency of the system of sentinel epidemiological surveillance of influenza. Profilaktychna medytsyna, (1), 14—17 (in Ukrainian).

Holubka, O.S., Onyschenko, O.V., Mironenko, A.P., & Stepanskiy, D.O. (2012). Strain characteristics of the population of influenza viruses isolated in Ukraine in the season 2011—2012. Tuberkul'oz, lehenevi khvoroby, VIL-infektsiya, (4), 97—100 (in Ukrainian).

Sentinel surveillance of influenza in Ukraine. (2020). Retrieved from http://ukrinfluenza.com.ua.

Zhdanov, V.M. (1984). Man and viruses. In Science and humanity: international yearbook (pp. 44—55). Moscow: Znanie (in Russian).

Zhirnov, O.P., & Manykin, A.A. (2014). pH-dependent rearrangements in the influenza A virus. Voprosy Virusologii, (3), 41—46 (in Russian).

Israel, Yu.A. (1989). Acid rain. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 270 p. (in Russian).

Isayev, A. (2001). The Ecological Climatology. Moscow: Nauchnyy Mir, 456 p. (in Russian).

Karisheva, V.M. (2001). Special epizootology: Textbook. Kyiv: Vyshcha Osvita, 703 p. (in Ukrainian).

Acidity map of atmospheric precipitation in Ukraine. (2006). Retrieved from https://www.imbf.org/karty/karta-kislotnosti-atmosfernyh-osadkov-ukriany.html.

The Climate Cadastre of Ukraine. (2005). Kyiv: Publ. of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, 48 p. (in Ukrainian).

Lipinskyy, V., Dyachuk, V., & Babichenko, V. (Eds.). (2003). The Climate of Ukraine. Kyiv: Rayevskyy Publishing, 344 p. (in Ukrainian).

Mikita, G.I. (2009). Studies of the structure and form of influenza A virus of strains H5 and H7 — avian influenza. Vestnik RUDN. Seriya. Ekologiya i bezopasnost’ zhiznedeyatel’nosti, (1), 17—20 (in Russian).

Mironenko, A.P, Holubka, O.S., & Onishchenko, O.V. (2011). Evaluation of the effectiveness of sentinel surveillance for influenza in Ukraine. Profilaktychna medytsyna, (4), 25—32 (in Ukrainian).

Orlyuk, M.I., Frolov, A.F., Zadorozhnaya, V.I., & Romenets, A.A. (2007). Disturbance of the Earth’s magnetic field and some aspects of infectious diseases. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal, 29(6), 148—156 (in Russian).

UHC: Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center. (2020). Retrieved from https://meteo.gov.ua/ua/33345/current/ukraine/#.

Public Health Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine. (2020). Retrieved from https://phc.org.ua/kontrol-zakhvoryuvan/inshi-infekciyni-zakhvoryuvannya/koronavirusna-infekciya-covid-19.

CGO: Central Geophysical Observatory. (2020). Retrieved from http://www.cgo.kiev.ua/index.php?fn=k_klimat&f=kyiv&p=1.

Bloom-Feshbach, K., Alonso, W.J., Charu, V., Tamerius, J., Simonsen, L., Miller, M.A., & Viboud, C. (2013). Latitudinal Variations in Seasonal Activity of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV): A Global Comparative Review. PLoS ONE, 8(2), e54445. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone. 0054445.

Boychenko, S., Voloshchuk, V., Kuchma, T., & Serdyuchenko, N. (2018). Long-time changes of the thermal continentality index, the amplitudes and the phase of the seasonal temperature variation in Ukraine. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal, 40(3), 81—96. doi: https://10.24028/gzh.0203‒3100.v40i3.2018.137175.

Boychenko, S., Voloshchuk, V., Movchan, Ya., Serdjuchenko, N., Tkachenko, V., Tyshchenko, O., & Savchenko, S., (2016). Features of climate change on Ukraine: scenarios, consequences for nature and agroecosystems. Proceedings of the National Aviation University, (4), 96—113. doi: https://doi.org/10.18372/2306—1472.69.11061.

Caini, S., Kusznier, G., Garate, V., Wangchuk, S., Thapa, B. et al. (2019). The epidemiological signature of influenza B virus and its B/Victoria and B/Yamagata lineages in the 21st century. PLoS ONE, 14(9). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0222381.

Chan, P.W., Chew, F.T., Tan, T.N., Chua, K.B., & Hooi, P.S. (2002). Seasonal variation in respiratory syncytial virus chest infection in the tropics. Pediatr Pulmonol, 34, 47—51. https://doi.org/10.1002/ppul.10095.

Cheval, S., Adamescu, C.M., Georgiadis, T., Herrnegger, M., Piticar, A., & Legates, D.R. (2020). Observed and Potential Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Environment. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(11), 4140. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17114140.

Ching, J., & Kajino, M. (2020). Rethinking Air Quality and Climate Change after COVID-19. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(14), 5167. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17145167.

Climate data: Ukraine. (2020). Retrieved from https://en.tutiempo.net/climate/ukraine.htm.

COVID-19 situation in the WHO European Region. (2020). Retrieved from https://who.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/a19d5d1f86ee4d99b013eed5f637232d.

Coronavirus epidemic monitoring system. (2020). Retrieved from https://covid19.rnbo.gov.ua/.

Cox, N.J., & Subbarao, K. (2000). Global epidemiology of influenza: past and present. Annual Review of Medicine, 51, 407—421. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.med.51.1.407.

Darnell, M.E.R., Subbarao, K., Feinstone, S.M., & Taylor, D.R. (2004). Inactivation of the coronavirus that induces severe acute respiratory syndrome, SARS-CoV. Journal of Virological Methods, 121, 85—91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jviromet.2004.06.006.

Hammond, G.W., Raddatz, R.L., & Gelskey, D.E. (1989). Impact of Atmospheric Dispersion and Transport of Viral Aerosols on the Epidemiology of Influenza. Reviews of Infectious Diseases, 11(3), 494—497. https://doi.org/10.1093/clinids/11.3.494.

IPCC: Climate change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. (2013). Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate, UNEP/WMO. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/.

Larsen, A., Hanigan, I., Reich, B.J., Qin, Y., Cope, M., Morgan, G., & Rappold, A.G. (2020). A deep learning approach to identify smoke plumes in satellite imagery in near-real time for health risk communication. Journal of Exposure Sciences & Environmental Epidemiology, 150(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41370-020-0246-y.

Laude, H. (1981). Thermal inactivation studies of a coronavirus, transmissible gastroenteritis virus. Journal of General Virology, 56(2), 235—240. https://doi.org/10.1099/0022-1317-56-2-235.

LeDuc, J.W., & Barry, M.A. (2004). SARS, the first pandemic of the 21st century. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 10, e26. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1011.040797_02.

Le Quéré, C., Jackson, R.B., Jones, M.W., Smith, A.J.P., Abernethy, S., Andrew, R.M., De-Gol, A.J., Willis, D.R., Shan, Y., Canadell, J.G., Friedlingstein, P., Creutzig, F. & Peters, G.P. (2020). Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement. Nature Climat Changes, 10, 647—653. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0797-x.

Liu, J., Zhou, J., Yao, J., Zhang, X., Li, L., Xu, X., He, X., Wang, B., Fu, S., Niu, T., Yan, J., Shi, Y., Ren, X., Niu, J., Zhu, W., Li, S., Luo, B., & Zhang, K. (2020). Impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 transmission: A multi-city study in China. Sciences of the Total Environent, 726. 13851. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138513.

Lofgren, E., Fefferman, N.H., Naumov, Y.N., Gorski, J., & Naumova, E.N. (2007). Influenza seasonality: underlying causes and modeling theories. Journal of Virology, 81, 5429—36. https://doi.org/ 10.1128/JVI.01680-06.

Meerhoff, T.J., Simaku, A., Ulqinaku, D., et al. (2015). Surveillance for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in hospitals in the WHO european region — an exploratory analysis of risk factors for a severe outcome in influenza-positive SARI cases. BMC Infectious Diseases, 15. https://doi.org/10.1186 / s12879-014-0722-x.

Memish, Z.A., Perlman, S., Van Kerkhove, M.D., & Zumla, A. (2020). Middle East respiratory syndrome. The Lancet, 395, 1063—1077. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(19)33221-0.

Minnis, P., Harrison, E., Stowe, L., Gibson, G.G., Denn, F.M., Doelling, D.R., & Smith, W.L. (1993). Radiative climate forcing by the Mount Pinatubo eruption. Science, 259, 1411—1415. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.259.5100.1411.

Oliver, J.E. (Ed.). (2005). Encyclopedia of World Climatology. Berlin, Heidelberg, New York: Springer Science & Business Media, 874 р.

Omer, S.B., Sutanto, A., Sarwo, H., Linehan, M., Djelantik, I.G.G., Mercer, D., Moniaga, V., Moulton, L.H., Widjaya, A., Muljati, P., Gessner, B.D., & Steinhof, M.C. (2008). Climatic, temporal, and geographic characteristics of respiratory syncytial virus disease in a tropical island population. Epidemiology & Infection, 136(10), 1319—1327. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268807000015.

Open Data-Server. (2020). Retrieved from https://opendata.dwd.de/climate_environment/.

Park, J.E., Son, W.S., Ryu, Y., Choi, S.B., Kwon, O., & Ahn, I. (2020) Effects of temperature, humidity, and diurnal temperature range on influenza incidence in a temperate region. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, 14, 11—18. https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.12682.

Paynter, S. (2015). Humidity and respiratory virus transmission in tropical and temperate settings. Epidemiol. Epidemiology & Infection, 143, 1110—1118. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268814002702.

Prather, K.A., Wang, C.C., & Schooley, R.T. (2020). Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Science, 368, 1422—1424. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc6197.

Perdiz, D., Grof, P., Mezzina, M., Nikaido, O., Moustacchi, E., & Sage, E. (2000). Distribution and repair of bipyrimidine photoproducts in solar UV‒irradiated mammalian cells. Journal of Biological Chemistry, 275, 26732— 26742. https://doi.org/10.1074/jbc.M001450200.

Sagripanti, J.-L., & Lytle, C.D. (2007). Inactivation of influenza virus by solar radiation. Photochemistry and photobiology, 83, 1278—1282. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1751‒1097.2007.00177.x.

Shaman, J., & Kohn, M. (2009). Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality. Proc. of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, 3243—48. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806852106.

Skrynyk, O., Aguilar, E., Skrynyk, O., Sidenko, V., Boichuk, D., & Osadchyi, V. (2018). Quality control and homogenization of monthly extreme air temperature of Ukraine. International Journal of Climatology, 39(4), 2071—2079. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5934.

Stensballe, L.G., Devasundaram, J.K., & Simoes, E.A. (2003). Respiratory syncytial virus epidemics: the ups and downs of a seasonal virus. The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal, 22, S21—S32. https://doi.org/10.1097/01.inf.0000053882.70365.c9.

Sun, Z., Cai, X., Gu, C., Zhang, R., Han, W., Qian, Y., Wang, Y., Xu, W., Wu, Y., Cheng, X., Yuan, Z., Xie, Y., & Qu, D. (2020). Stability of the COVID-19 virus under wet, dry and acidic conditions. Medrxiv Posted. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.09.20058875.

Tian, H., & Xu, B. (2015). Persistence and transmission of avian influenza A (H5N1): virus movement, risk factors and pandemic potential. Annals of GIS, 21(1), 55—68. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475683.2014.992368.

Van Doremalen, N., Bushmaker, T., Morris, D.H., Phil, M., Holbrook, M.G., Gamble, A., Williamson, B.N., Tamin, A., Harcourt, J.L., Thornburg, N.J., Gerber, S.I., Lloyd-Smith, J.O., de Wit, E., Munster, V.J. (2020). Aerosol and surface stability of SARS-CoV-2 as compared with SARS-CoV-1. New England Journal of Medicine, 382, 1564—1567. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc2004973.

Walker, P.G.T., Whittaker, C., Watson, O.J., Baguelin, M., Winskill, P., Hamlet, A. et al. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries. Science, 369, 413—422 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc0035.

Weather for 243 countries of the world. (2020). Retrieved from http://rp5.ua.

WHO. (2005). Retrieved from https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/276959.

WHO. (2009). New influenza A (H1N1) virus: global epidemiological situation. Weekly Epidemiologycal Record, (25), 249—257. Retrieved from https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/241366/WER8425_249‒257.PDF.

WHO. (2018a). Retrieved from https://www.who.int/influenza/.

WHO. (2018б). Retrieved from https://www.who.int/influenza/surveillance_monitoring/bod/en/.

WHO. (2019). Retrieved from https://www.euro.who.int/_data/assets/pdf_file/0019/424342/NPI_guide.pdf?ua=1.

WHO. (2020a). Retrieved from https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub.

WHO. (2020б). Retrieved from https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/333114/WHO-2019-nCoV-Sci_Brief-Transmission_modes-2020.3-rus.pdf.

WHO. (2020в). Retrieved from https://data.unwomen.org/resources/covid-19-emerging-gender-data-and-why-it-matters.

Xiao, X., Chakraborti, S., Dimitrov, A.S., Gramatikoff, K., Dimitrov, D.S. (2003). The SARS-CoV S glycoprotein: expression and functional characterization. Biochemical and Biophysical Research Communication, 312(4), 1159—1164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bbrc.2003.11.054.

Yusuf, S., Piedimonte, G., Auais, A., Demmler, G., Krishnan, S., Van Caeseele, P., Singleton, R., Broor, S., Parveen, S., Avendano, L., Parra, J., Chavez-Bueno, S., Murguia de Sierra, T., Simoes, E.A.F., Shaha, S., & Welliver, R. (2007). The relationship of meteorological conditions to the epidemic activity of respiratory syncytial virus. Epidemiology & Infection, 135, 1077—1090. https://doi.org/10.1017/S095026880600776X.

Yang, W., & Marr, L.C. (2011). Dynamics of airborne influenza a virus indoors and dependence on humidity. PLoS ONE, 6, e21481. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0021481.

Yang, W., Elankumaran, S., & Marr, L.C. (2012). Relationship between humidity and influenza A viability in droplets and implications for influenza’s seasonality. PLoS ONE, 7, e46789. https://doi.org/10.1371/ journal.pone.0046789.

Zhu, Y., & Xie, J. (2020). Association between ambient temperature and COVID-19 infection in 122 cities from China. Science of the Total Environment, 724, 138201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138201.


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Creative Commons License
Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Flag Counter