FORECAST SCENARIOS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURAL LAND MARKET
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33730/2310-4678.4.2018.166436Keywords:
land market, agriculture, forecast, scenarios, development, model, conjunctureAbstract
The article is devoted to the research and development of theoretical and methodological approaches
to forecasting the development of the agricultural land market. The development trends of the main indicators
of the domestic market for agricultural lands are analyzed. It was determined that in modern
conditions the agricultural land market is still at the stage of formation, which is primarily associated
with the free transfer of land to citizens and their depreciation in the privatization process, as well as the
extension of the moratorium on the sale of land in this category. Given the likely economic changes and
possible options for the transformation of land relations, three main forecast scenarios for the development
of the agricultural land market in Ukraine for the future are justified: realistic (inertial), optimistic and
pessimistic. For each of these scenarios, the main directions of development in the context of the areas of
transformation of the agricultural land market, in particular the introduction of free circulation of land,
infrastructure, financial and information support, etc., are substantiated.
Based on the Holt’s method of exponential smoothing, a forecast was made of the land plots with
which transactions took place on the market turnover elements as of 2020, depending on the development
scenarios of this market. A predictive model of indicators of land plots with which transactions occurred,
which provides for their modeling based on multiple regression, is proposed. The evaluation of the adequacy
of this model according to the Fisher criterion was carried out. The use of the proposed model will allow
to form reliable perspective indicators of the development of the agricultural land market, in particular
the areas of land plots with which the transactions took place, depending on the influence factors and
scenarios of its development.
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