FORECASTING THE DYNAMICS OF POPULATIONS OF HARMFUL INSECTS AND PATHOGENS OF WOODY PLANTS OF THE FOREST-STEPPE OF UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33730/2310-4678.2.2024.309927Keywords:
sanitary condition, climatic conditions, root fungus, pathogen, relative humidity, potential evaporation, global warmingAbstract
Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing humanity. The emergence of dry tree patches in various parts of the globe indicates the global nature of processes related to planetary cycles and climate change. This is likely linked to various factors, including warming trends, changes in precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and alterations in ocean currents. To achieve the goal of this article, through empirical and analytical research methods, we analyzed contemporary scientific publications. We found that the projected spread of insect pests, parasites, and pathogens among tree species is increasingly concerning experts. Forest drying is a problem for both Europe and Ukraine, where the area affected by pine wilt has encompassed the Forest-Steppe region and spread to other natural zones. The paper highlights the pertinent issue of analyzing factors contributing to the weakening and deterioration of the sanitary condition of Forest-Steppe trees in Ukraine. Researchers predict significant climate changes in the near future. Due to such changes, insect pests and other pathogens may inflict even greater damage to forest plants. Climate change, particularly increased carbon dioxide emissions and warming, frequent droughts, and temperature fluctuations, affect pest populations. Common diseases of Forest-Steppe trees in Ukraine include those caused by insects, fungi, and bacteria. For instance, the most widespread affliction in forests is root rot (Fomes aппosus Fr., Heterobasidion annosum (Fr.) Bref.). Plants also suffer considerable damage from nematodes and viruses. The publication examines the impact of climate change (temperature, humidity, etc.) on the biology and ecology of insect pests and explores the potential use of modern monitoring technologies for pests and forecasting tools. Thus, projected climate changes can cause warming, altering the quantitative, qualitative, and temporal characteristics of precipitation. In this way, global climate changes affect water availability in soil, atmospheric water vapor flows, and hydrological processes. Many pests are sensitive to changes in precipitation and temperature, leading to shifts in their populations.
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