Reducing seismic hazard: missed opportunities

Abstract

The article dwells upon seismic hazard reduction. The authors point out and analyze three aspects of solution to the above-mentioned problem: earthquake engineering, short-time prediction of disastrous earthquakes and minor seismicity activation via artificial sources with the view of relieving tectonic stresses. The article attempts to discern the causes of ambiguous geophysical interpretation and associated permanent failures in short-time prediction issue solution. A critical stance is taken towards fundamental methodological approach based on the ideas of classical physics and new concepts studied within the framework of non-equilibrium physics, such as blow-up regime and the model of self-organized criticality (SOC). The authors emphasize the importance of common scientific methodology construction aiming at short-time prediction of disastrous earthquakes and stress the need for the development of seismic hazard reduction technologies via active influence on tectonic processes.