Tornado statistics in Ukraine based on new data

Abstract

Tornadoes are dangerous and difficult to forecast atmospheric phenomenon that may cause high economic and social losses. Therefore in the USA and Europe tornado receive more attention and tornadoes observation systems are actively expanding and improving. In the present paper; based on the new data of seven severe weather catalogs of Europe and former USSR a merged catalog was created containing 6298 tornado sighting records. On this basis the geographical distribution of recorded tornadoes of all types and intensities in Ukraine; Belarus; Moldova; Poland; Romania; Hungary and other European countries near Ukraine in 1119—2017 within 21—65 °E and 44—71 °N was mapped. The tornado geographic distribution in continental and moderate continental climate areas was shown to be approximately homogeneous and correlating with population density in the territories under consideration. A conclusion that in the low populated regions of Ukraine 90—95 % of destructive tornadoes with intensity EF1 and above remain unreported and are not included in the catalogs was obtained. This conclusion was confirmed by Earth’s remote sensing data; therefore the real quantity of tornadoes in Ukraine Should be approximately 10—20 times higher than the amount of events reported in the catalogs. Based on analysis of the merged catalog it was shown that catastrophic tornadoes with EF4—EF5 intensity may also emerge in Ukrainian territory. The geographic distribution of tornado emerging probability in Ukrainian territory was mapped. The probability of powerful destructive tornadoes with intensity EF1 and higher registration was also shown to be approximately homogeneous in all the territory of Ukraine. Based on geographic distribution of tornado observation frequency in Ukraine the average rate of tornado reporting in Ukraine was estimated to be 20.6 tornadoes per square degree per century; and for destructive tornadoes of EF1 intensity and higher; this frequency estimate is 4.3.