Estimation of comfort of weather conditions and trends of their changes for the Kyiv region in the conditions of climate change
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24028/gzh.0203-3100.v41i6.2019.190071Keywords:
climate change, equivalent-effective temperature, comfortable and uncomfortable weather conditions, trends and scenariosAbstract
Climate change, the increasing variability of weather conditions and more often manifestation of extreme weather phenomena in Ukraine negatively affect the comfort of life, health, working capacity and mortality of the population.
Evaluation of the population’s sensitivity towards the new climatic conditions and the establishment of tendencies in the distribution of comfortable and uncomfortable weather periods during the year were estimated based on the calculation of equivalent-effective temperatures (EET) according to the Missenard’s formula by using observation data from meteostations in the Kyiv region.
A certain shift on a scale was established from a subcomfortable weather conditions in this region towards a more comfortable one for the period 1971―2018. However, the situation is becoming more complicated due to the increase in frequency of extreme temperatures in warm season, especially in summer, and significant variability in cold season (thermal and cold waves).
Analysis of the periodical observations for meteorological parameters (surface air temperature, air humidity and wind speed) from 9 meteostations for the period 2006―2018 has showen that in cold season, against the general tendency to warming, significant variability of weather conditions appeared with an increase in frequency of frosty periods in winter and early spring. In warm period, the situation in the region is ambiguous, so for gradations (6÷12) and lower, there is a general tendency to decrease repeatability, and for gradations above (12÷16) to increase repeatability, which is associated with the appearing of heat waves.
A possible scenario of the repeatability occurrence of comfortable and uncomfortable weather situations is also proposed for cold and warm periods of the year in the Kyiv region by the middle of the 21st century in the face of further climate change.
Thus, biometeorological (bioclimatic) indices are effective indicators of the thermal structure of the environment, which surrounds a person, especially in the face of climate change, and their estimations are necessary to use in different spheres ― medicine, balneology, ecology, etc.
References
Andreev, S. S. (2012). Integral assessment of climatic comfort on the example of the Southern Federal District of Russia. St. Petersburg: Publ. of the Russian State Hydrometeorological University, 262 p. (in Russian).
Boychenko, S. G. (2008). Semi-empirical models and scenarios of global and regional changes of climate. Kyiv: Naukova Dumka, 310 p. (in Ukrainian).
Boychenko, S. G., Karamushka, V. I., Tyshchenko, O. V., & Mohnach, R. Yu. (2017). Environmental threats for biodiversity in the Kyiv from climate change. Dopovidi NAN Ukrayiny, (12), 104–111. https://10.15407/dopovidi2017.12.104 (in Ukrainian).
Boychenko, S. G., & Serdyuchenko, N. (2005). Assessment of the dependence of the parameters of regional climatic fields on the altitude above sea level. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal, 27(5), 858—867 (in Russian).
Vitchenko, A. N., & Telesh, I. A. (2017). Current trends of the climatic comfort change in Minsk. Zhurnal Belorusskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Geografiya. Geologiya, (2), 103—113 (in Russian).
Voloshchuk, V. M., & Boychenko, S. G. (2003). Scenarios of possible changes of climate of Ukraine in 21 century (under influence of global anthropogenic warming). In: Lipinskyy V., Dyachuk V., Babichenko V. (Eds.), The Climate of Ukraine (pp. 308—331). Kiev: Raevsky Publ. (in Ukrainian).
Zabarna, O. (2019). Assessment of climate comfort and discomfort in Kyiv and trends of their changes. 3th Youth Conference «Society, Environment and Climate Change»: Abstracts. Kyiv (in Ukrainian).
Isayev, A. А. (2001). The Ecological Climatology. Moscow: Nauchnyy Mir, 456 p. (in Russian).
Kulbida, M., & Barabash, M. (Ed.). (2009). Climate of Ukraine: at the past and the future. Kyiv: Stal, 234 p. (in Ukrainian).
The Climate Cadastre of Ukraine. (2005). Kyiv, Central Geophysical Observatory, 48 p. http://www.cgo.kiev.ua/index.php?dv=pos-klim-kadastr (in Ukrainian).
Stepanenko, S., & Polovyy, A. (Eds.). (2015). Climate change and impact on the Ukrainian economy. Odessa: TES, 520 p. (in Ukrainian).
Krakovska, S. V., Palamarchuk, L. V., Gnatiuk, N. V. & Shpytal, T. M. (2018). Projections of air temperature and relative humidity in ukraine regions to the middle of the 21st century based on regional climate model ensembles. Geoinformatika, (3), 62—77 (in Ukrainian).
Pashkov, S. V., & Mazhitova, G. Z. (2016). Medical and geographical assessment of comfort of climatic conditions in the north kazakhstan region. Izvestiya TulGU. Nauki o Zemle, (3), 88—98 (in Russian).
Central Geophysical Observatory. (2019). Retrieved from http://cgo-sreznevskyi.kiev.ua/index.php?fn=k_klimat&f=kyiv (in Ukrainian)).
Shevchenko, O. (2016). Comparative analysis of bioclimatic indices for assessment of comfort of urban environment in warm period. Hidrolohiya, hidrokhimiya i hidroekolohiya, 3, 105—115 (in Ukrainian).
Boychenko, S., Voloshchuk, V., Kuchma, T., Serdyuchenko, N. (2018). Long-time changes of the thermal continentality index, the amplitudes and the phase of the seasonal temperature variation in Ukraine. Геофиз. журн. Т. 40. № 3. С. 81—96. https://10.24028/gzh.0203–3100.v40i3.2018.137175.
Boychenko, S., Voloshchuk, V., Movchan, Ya., Serdjuchenko, N., Tkachenko, V., Tyshchenko, O., & Savchenko, S. 2016. Features of climate change on Ukraine: scenarios, consequences for nature and agroecosystems. Proceedings of the National Aviation University, 69(4), 96–113. https://10.18372/2306–1472.69.11061.
WHO: Climate Change And Health: A Tool To Estimate Health And Adaptation Costs. (2013). Publications WHO Regional Office for Europe, 55 p. Retrieved from http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/environment-and-health/Climate-change/publications/2013/climate-change-and-health-a-tool-to-estimate-health-and-adaptation-costs.
Di Napoli, C., Pappenberger, F., & Cloke, H. L. (2018). Assessing Heat–related Health Risk in Europe via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). International Journal of Biometeorology, 62(7), 1155–1165. https:// 10.1007/s00484-018-1518-2.
IPCC: Climate change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. (2013). Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate, UNEP/WMO. Ret-
rieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/.
IPCC: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. (2014). Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri and L. A. Meyer (eds.). Geneva, Switzerland, 151 p. Retrieved from http://www.weadapt.org.
Kovats, S., Ebi, K., & Menne, B. (Eds.). (2005). Methods for assessing the sensitivity of human health and adapting public health to climate change. Publications WHO Regional Office for Europe, 111 p. Retrieved from https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/107538.
Leung, Y. K., Yip, K. M., & Yeung, K. H. (2008). Relationship between Thermal Index and Mortality in Hong Kong. Meteorological Applications, 15(3), 399–409. https:// 10.1002/met.82.
Nedel, A. S., Gonçalves, F. L. T., Macedo Júnior, C., & Cardoso, M. R. A. (2015). Climatology of the human thermal comfort on São Paulo metropolitan area, Brazil: indoors and outdoors. Revista Brasileira de Geofisica, 33(2), 185–204. http://dx.doi.org/10.22564/rbgf.v33i2.713.
Oliver, J. E. (Ed.). (2005). Encyclopedia of World Climatology. Berlin, Heidelberg, New York: Springer Science & Business Media, 874 р.
Sajani, S., Garaffoni, G., Goldoni, C., Ranzi, A., Tibaldi, S., Lauriola, P. (2002). Mortality and Bioclimatic Discomfort in Emilia-Romagna, Italy. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health,
, 536–537. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/jech.56.
536.
Rosenzweig, C., Solecki, W., Romero-Lankao, P., Mehrotra, S., Dhakal, S., Bowman, T., & Ali Ibrahim S. (2015). ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders. Urban Climate Change Research Network. Columbia University. New York, p. 28.
Rymuza, K., Radzka, E., Świerzycka, G. (2019). Assessment of Variation in Thermal Sensations Determined Based on Effective Temperature Nor. Journal of Ecological Engineering, 20(2), 218–225. https:// 10.12911/22998993/93797.
Weather for 243 countries of the world. (2019). Retrieved from https://rp5.ua/Weather_in_the_ world.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2020 Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
