Estimation of tendencies, homogeneity and stationarity of air temperature at the Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station during 1951—2020


  • L. Gorbachova Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, Ukraine
  • B. Khrystiuk Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, Ukraine
  • V. Shpyg Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, Ukraine
  • D. Pishniak National Antarctic Scientific Center of Ukraine, Ukraine



air temperature, cyclical fluctuations, stationarity, homogeneity, Antarctica, statistical tests, graphic methods


In this paper results of the complex analysis of surface air temperature tendencies investigations at the Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station are represented. Antarctica is a region that has a high rate of surface air temperature increase. The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced particularly fast warming, which has the highest temperature rise in the Southern Hemisphere. Therefore, in Antarctica, the study of surface air temperature change is important.

The Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station is located on Galindez Island near the Antarctic Peninsula. Investigation of the surface air temperature is especially relevant to the Akademik Vernadsky station, because it has difficult conditions for its formation. The research goal is the estimation of tendencies, homogeneity and stationarity of the annual and mean monthly values of surface air temperature at the Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station based on a combined approach with the use of several statistical and graphical methods. The use of various statistical methods that differ in characteristics (sensitivity to the law of distribution, autocorrelation, etc.) allows obtaining more reliable estimates. Graphic methods give an opportunity to analyze the tendencies over time and its change periods, the cyclical fluctuations and their characteristics (phases of increase and decrease, their duration, synchronicity, in-phase). Therefore, 4 statistical tests (standard normal Alexandersson test, Buishand test, Pettitt test, von Neumann relation) and 2 graphical methods (mass curve and residual mass curve) were used in the study.

At the Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station, the observation series of the mean annual air temperature are quasi-homogeneous and quasi-stationary, as it has only a cooling phase and a warming phase of long-term cyclical fluctuations, which are also unfinished. The transition from the cooling phase to the warming phase took place in 1982. Tendencies in mean monthly air temperatures are similar to tendencies in mean annual temperatures. The differences are only for some months, namely, for the period from September to December.


Andreyanov, V.G. (1959). Cyclical fluctuations of annual runoff and their account at hydrological calculations. Proceedings State Hydrological Institute, 68, 3—49 (in Russian).

Barrand, N.E., Vaughan, D.G., Steiner, N., Tedesco, M., Kuipers Munneke, P., van den Broeke, M.R., & Hosking, J.S. (2013). Trends in Antarctic Peninsula surface melting conditions from observations and regional climate modeling. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 118, 315—330.

Cape, M.R., Vernet, M., Skvarca, P., Marinsek, S., Scambos, T., & Domack, E. (2015). Foehn winds link climate-driven warming to ice shelf evolution in Antarctica. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 120, 11 037—11 057.

Chernov, A., Ivko, A., & Bulakh, O. (2021). Reconnaissance GPR investigation of the ice caps on islands of Wilhelm Archipelago and on Berthelot Island (West Antarctica). Geofizicheskiy Zurnal, 43(6), 266—280.

Diener, T., Sasgen, I., Agosta, C., Fürst, J.J., Braun, M.H., Konrad, H., & Fettweism, X. (2021). Acceleration of Dynamic Ice Loss in Antarctica from Satellite Gravimetry. Frontiers in Earth Science, 9, 741789.

Ehlert, K.W. (1972). Homogeni tets kontroll av hydrologiska tidsserier. Nordisk Hydrologisk Konferanse, Sandefjord (pp. 47—59).

Franzke, C. (2013). Significant reduction of cold temperature extremes at Faraday/Vernadsky station in the Antarctic Peninsula. International Journal of Climatology, 33(5), 1070—1078.

Gonzalez, S., & Fortuny, D. (2018). How robust are the temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula? Antarctic Science, 30(5), 322—328.

Gorbachova, L.O. (2017). Hydro-genetic analysis of the spatio-temporal regularities of streamflow rivers of Ukraine: methodology, trends, forecast. Extended abstract of Degree of Doctor¢s thesis. Kyiv, 32 p. (in Ukrainian).

Gorbachova, L.O. (2014). Methodical approaches the assessment of the homogeneity and stationarity of hydrological observation series. Hydrology, Hydrochemistry and Hydroecology, 1(32), 22—31 (in Ukrainian).

Gorbachova, L.O. (2016). Place and role of hydro-genetic analysis among modern research methods runoff. Proceedings of Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, 268, 73—81 (in Ukrainian).

Gorbachova, L. (2015). The intra-annual streamflow distribution of Ukrainian rivers in different phases of long-term cyclical fluctuations. Energetika, 61(2), 71—80.

Gorbachova, L., & Bauzha, T. (2013). Complex analysis of stationarity and homogeneity of flash flood maximum discharges in the Rika River basin. Energetika, 59(3), 167—174.

Gorbachova, L., Zabolotnia, T., & Khrystyuk, B. (2018). Homogeneity and stationarity analysis of the snow-rain floods in the Danube basin within Ukraine. Acta Hydrologica Slovaca, 19(1), 35—41. Retrieved from

Hamdi, Y., Duluc, C-M., & Rebour, V. (2018). Temperature Extremes: Estimation of Non-Stationary Return Levels and Associated Uncertainties. Atmosphere, 9(4), 129.

Jaiswal, R.K., Lohani, A.K., & Tiwari, H.L. (2015). Statistical Analysis for Change Detection and Trend Assessment in Climatological Parameters. Environmental Processes, 2, 729—749.

Khrystiuk, B., Gorbachova, L., Shpyg, V., & Pishniak, D. (2022). Changes in extreme temperature indices for the Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station, 1951—2020. Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications, 10(1), 95—106.

King, J.C., & Turner, J. (1997). Antarctic meteorology and climatology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 409 p.

Klemeš, V. (1987). One hundred years of applied storage reservoir theory. Water Resources Management, 1/3, 159—175.

Kohler, M.A. (1949). Double-mass analysis for testing the consistency of records for making adjustments. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 30, 188—189.

Martazinova, V.F., Tymofeyev, V.E., & Ivanova, Ye.K. (2010). Current regional climate of the Antarctic Peninsula and Akademik Vernadsky Station. Ukrainian Antarctic Journal, 9, 231—248. 9.2010.411 (in Ukrainian).

McCarl, B.A., Villavicencio, X., & Wu, X. (2008). Climate Change and Future Analysis: Is Stationarity Dying? American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 90(5), 1241—1247.

Merriam, C.F. (1937). A comprehensive study of the rainfall on the Susquehanna Valley. Transactions American Geophysical Union, 18/2, 471—476.

R Core Team (2017). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. Retrieved from

Rippl, W. (1883). The capacity of storage reservoirs for water supply. Proceedings of the Institute of Civil Engineers, 71, 270—278.

Searcy, J.K. & Hardison, C.H. (1960). Double-mass curves. Manual of Hydrology: Part 1. General Surface-Water Techniques. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 1541-B. Washington: United States Government Printing Office, 36 p.

Turner, J., Lu, H., White, I., King, J.C., Phillips, T., Hosking, J.S., Bracegirdle, T.J., Marshall, G.J., Mulvaney, R., & Deb, P. (2016). Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability. Nature, 535, 411—415.

Turner, J., Marshall, G.J., Colwell, S., Phillips, T., & Lu, H. (2020). Antarctic temperature variability and change from station data. International Journal of Climatology, 40(6), 2986—3007.

Tymofeyev, V.E. (2013). Multi-years’ changes in the air temperature at the Antarctic Peninsula and the possible reasons. Proceedings of Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, 264, 9—17 (in Ukrainian).

Weiss, L.L. & Wilson, W.T. (1953). Evaluation of significance of slope changes in double mass curves. Transactions American Geophysical Union, 34, 893—896.

WMO. (1990). On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations. WMO-No. 415. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 189 р.

WMO. (2018). Guide to Climatological Practices. WMO-No. 100. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 140 p.

Yozgatligil, C., & Yazici, C. (2016). Comparison of homogeneity tests for temperature using a simulation study. International Journal of Climatology, 36(1), 62—81.

Zabolotnia, T, Gorbachova, L. & Khrystyuk, B. (2019). Estimation of the long-term cyclical fluctuations of snow-rain floods in the Danube basin within Ukraine. Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications, 7(2), 3—11.

Zabolotnia, T., Parajka, J., Gorbachova, L., Széles, B., Blöschl, G., Aksiuk, O., Tong, R., & Komma, J. (2022). Fluctuations of Winter Floods in Small Austrian and Ukrainian Catchments. Hyd¬rology, 9(2), 38.




How to Cite

Gorbachova, L. ., Khrystiuk, B. ., Shpyg, V. ., & Pishniak, D. . (2022). Estimation of tendencies, homogeneity and stationarity of air temperature at the Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station during 1951—2020. Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal, 44(4), 183–194.