On prognostication ability of active geosystems: metastability and steady transitions instead of attractors
Keywords:dynamic systems, seismicity, spontaneous emissions, prognostication ability of geosystems, seismoelectromagnetism, transitional processes, autostructures, systems with noise
AbstractSome details and special features are under considerations of undertaken experimental and theoretical studies related to prognosticated ability and forecast of geo-systems dynamics which were paid not enough attention but, possibly, might have crucial importance for definition of future studies in this area. According to the ideas of nonlinear dynamics of spatial-temporal processes and systems new capabilities and new approaches to their solutions are being discussed. Crucial dynamic objects of such an approach are meta-stability and steady transitions, and, in addition, to metastable images in phase spaces of the system do not respond the attractors but transitional sets of paths. Active role of geo-medium and its specific dynamic conditions generated by cooperative behavior of its elements and subsystems is underlined. More appropriate definition is formed of seismic process and possible mechanisms of generation of spontaneous emissions of different character, associated with transitional dissipation, more justified from both their physical interpretation and simulation. On this base and taking into account overall criteria, which guarantee the emergence of critical dynamics and discovered lately new nonlinear dynamic regimes in spread active (excited) systems actual problems are discussed of diagnostics and prognostication capability of geosystems, special role and the influence of noises of different character on the active structured geosystems admitting self-organized critical behavior and processes of formation exponential spectra of capacity is noticed. In addition, standing apart of widely declared theses of 70-80 th of last century, and unlike the strange-attractor approach, the basic attention is paid to effects of noises and fluctuations upon large-scale dynamics of geosystems. As a result the problem of local forecast in up-to-date definition may be considered as a study of a response of active (excitable) structured geomedium on multifrequency spontaneous fluctuations and external actions. Attention is paid to some special features and essential factors of formation of focal zones and evolution processes, known from observations and solutions of basal equations of nonlinear dynamics. Strong relation of spontaneous emissions of lithosphere with dynamics of auto-structures and their complexes is underlined. In addition, blocky-hierarchic heterogeneous structure of lithosphere determines not only spatial characteristics of the fields of spontaneous emissions but also, to significant extent, their temporal and energetic characteristics.
Anishchenko V. S., Vadivasova T. E., Strelkova G. I., 2010. Self-sustained oscillations of dynamical and stochastic systems and their mathematical image — an attractor. Nelineynaya dinamika 6(1), 107—126 (in Russian).
Anishchenko V. S., Neyman A. B., Moss F., Shymanowskiy-Gayer L., 1999. Stochastic resonance: noise-enhanced order. Uspekhi fizicheskikh nauk 169(1), 8—38 (in Russian).
Akhromeeva T., Kurdyumov S., Malinetskiy G., Samarskiy A., 2007. Structures and chaos in nonlinear media. Moscow: Fizmatlit, 488 p. (in Russian).
Bochkov G. N., Kuzovlev Yu. E., 1983. New research flicker noise. Uspekhi fizicheskikh nauk 152(is. 1), 151—176 (in Russian).
Bochkov G. N., Kuzovlev Yu. E., 2013. Fluctuation-dissipation relations. Uspekhi fizicheskikh nauk 183(6), 617—631 (in Russian).
Gaponov-Grekhov A. V., Rabinovich M. I., 1987b. Autostructures. Chaotic dynamics of ensembles. In: Nonlinear waves. Structures and bifurcation. Moscow: Nauka, P. 7—47 (in Russian).
Gertsik V. M., 2008. Physical representation of the destruction and the forecast of the probability of large earthquakes. Fizika Zemli (3), 22—39 (in Russian).
Guckenheimer J., Holmes F., 2002. Nonlinear vibrations dynamical systems and bifurcations of vector fields. Moscow-Izhevsk: Publ. The Institute of Computer Science, 560 p. (in Russian).
Guglielmi A. V., 2015. Foreshocks and aftershocks of strong earthquakes in the catastrophe theory. Uspekhi fizicheskikh nauk 185(4), 415—429 (in Russian).
Gufeld I. L., 2013. Is the forecast of strong crustal earthquakes? Vestnik RAN 83(3), 236—245 (in Russian).
Gufel’d I. L., 2007. Seismic process. Physical and chemical aspects. Scientific publication. Korolev: TsNIIMam, 160 p. (in Russian).
Gufel’d I. L., Novoselov O. N., 2014. Seismic process in the subduction zone. Monitoring the background. Moscow: MSFU Publ., 100 p. (in Russian).
Gufel’d I. L., Matveeva M. I., Novoselov O. N., 2011. Why can we not make a forecast of strong crustal earthquakes. Geodinamika i tektonofizika 20(4), 378—415 (in Russian).
Dayson F., 2010. Birds and frogs in mathematics and physics. Uspehi fizicheskih nauk 180(8), 859—870 (in Russian).
Doda L. N., Stepanov I. V., Natyaganov V. L., 2013. Empirical scheme of short-term earthquake prediction. Doklady RAN 453(5), 551—557 (in Russian).
Zelenyy L. M., Milovanov A. V., 2004. Fractal topology and strange kinetics: from percolation theory to problems in cosmic electrodynamics. Uspehi fizicheskih nauk 174(8), 810—851 (in Russian).
Iudin D. I., 2005. Fractal dynamics of the active systems: Dis. Dr. phys. and math. sci. Nizhny Novgorod, 30 p. (in Russian).
Kadomtsev B. B., 1994. Dynamics and information. Uspehi fizicheskih nauk 164(5), 449—530 (in Russian).
Kannel’ G. I., Fortov V. E., Razorenov S. V., 2007. Shock waves in condensed matter physics. Uspehi fizicheskih nauk 177(8), 809—830 (in Russian).
Klimontovich Yu., 2002. Introduction to the physics of open systems. Moscow: Yanus-K, 284 p. (in Russian).
Kogan M. I., 1985. Low-frequency current noise with a spectrum of 1/f in solids. Uspehi fizicheskih nauk 143(is. 2), 285—326 (in Russian).
Koronovskiy N. Naimark A., 2012. The unpredictability of earthquakes as a fundamental consequence of the nonlinearity of geodynamic systems. Vestnik Moskovskogo universitetata (6), 3—11 (in Russian).
Kosobokov V. G., 2004. Theoretical basis and earthquake prediction algorithms based on the activation of precursors seismicity: Dis. Dr. Phys. and Math. Sci. Moscow, 266 p. (in Russian).
Kravtsov Yu. A., 1989. Contingency, determinism predictability. Uspehi fizicheskih nauk 158(is. 1), 93—122 (in Russian).
Kuznetsov S. N., 2011. Dynamical chaos and uniformly hyperbolic attractors: from mathematics to physics. Uspehi fizicheskih nauk 181(2), 121—148 (in Russian).
Kuzovlev Yu. E., 2015. Why nature need the 1/f noise. Uspehi fizicheskih nauk 185(7), 773—783 (in Russian).
Loskutov A. Yu., 2010. Charm chaos. Uspehi fizicheskih nauk 180(12), 1305—1329 (in Russian).
Loskutov A. Yu., Mikhaylov A. S., 2007. Fundamentals of the theory of complex systems. Moscow-Izhevsk: Publ. The Institute of Computer Science, 560 p. (in Russian).
Lyubushin A. A., 2013. Mapping the properties of low-frequency microseisms for seismic hazard assessment. Fizika Zemli (6), 11—20 (in Russian).
Naymark A. A., Zakharov V. S., 2012. Ratios of direction, cyclicity and non-linearity in geological processes. Vestnik KRAESC. Nauki o zemle (1), 181—189 (in Russian).
Naymark O. B., 2008. Structural-scaling transitions and self-development patterns of earthquakes. Fizicheskaya mezomekhanika 1(2), 89—106 (in Russian).
Panteleev I. A., Plekhov O. A., Naimark O. B., 2012. Nonlinear dynamics of structures exacerbation in ensembles of defects as a mechanism for the formation of foci of earthquakes. Fizika Zemli (6), 43—55 (in Russian).
Pulinets S. A., Uzunov D., 2011. Satellite technology there is no alternative. On the issue of monitoring of natural and man-made disasters: Proceedings of the Institute of Applied Geophysics behalf of acad. E. K. Fedorov. Vol. 89. Moscow, P. 173—185 (in Russian).
Pulinets S. A., Uzunov D., Karelin A. V., Boyarchuk K. A., Tertyshnikov A. V., Yudin I. A., 2012. Uniform concept detect signs of impending strong earthquake in a complex system the lithosphere—atmosphere—ionosfera—magnetosphere. Kosmonavtika i reketostroenie (3), 21—31 (in Russian).
Rabinovich M. I., Myuezinolu M. K., 2010. Nonlinear dynamics of the brain: emotion and cognition. Uspehi fizicheskih nauk 180(4), 371—387 (in Russian).
Rebetskiy Yu. L., 2007. New data about natural stresses in the preparation of a strong earthquake. Model of earthquake source. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal 29(6), 92—110 (in Russian).
Rodkin M. V., 2016. Accidents and civilization. Dolgoprudnyy: Intellekt, 232 p. (in Russian).
Rodkin M. V., Nikitin A. N., Vasin R. N., 2009. Seismotectonic effects of solid-phase transformations in geomaterials. Moscow: GEOS, 199 p. (in Russian).
Rodkin M. V., Pisarenko V. F., Ngo Thi Ly, Rukavishnikova T. A., 2015. Theoretical approaches to the description of the distribution law of the strongest earthquakes: Abstracts. Kiev (in Russian).
Ruzmaykin A., 2014. Climate as a game of chance. Uspehi fizicheskih nauk 184(3), 297—310 (in Russian).
Rumanov E. N., 2013. Critical phenomena far from equilibrium. Uspehi fizicheskih nauk 183(1), 103—112 (in Russian).
Sibatov R. T., Uchaykin V. V., 2009. Fractional differential approach to dispersive transport in semiconductors. Uspehi fizicheskih nauk 179(10), 1079—1103 (in Russian).
Hayakava M. Korovkin N. V., 2011. Seismic and electromagnetic phenomenon as a new field of study radiowave phenomena: XII World Electrotechnical Congress. October 4—5, 2011 Presentations. 36 p. http://www.ruscable.ru//article/report. (in Russian).
Shapoval A. B., 2011. Questions predictability in isotropic models with self-organized criticality: Abstract Dis. Dr. Phys. and Math. Sci. Moscow, 35 p. (in Russian).
Shuman V. N., 2016a. Fractional dynamics and emissive activity of geosystems. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal 38(3), 72—83 (in Russian).
Shuman V. N., 2014a. Nonlinear dynamics of geomedium: transitional processes and critical phenomena. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal 36(6), 129—142 (in Russian).
Shuman V. N., 2015a. Nonlinear dynamics, seismic activity and aerospace sounding systems. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal 37(2), 38—55 (in Russian).
Shuman V. N., 2015b. On conceptual grounds of diagnostics and monitoring of geosystems. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal 37(4), 114—125 (in Russian).
Shuman V. N., 2014b. On the forecast and the predictability of the seismic process. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal 36(3), 48—71 (in Russian).
Shuman V. N., 2014c. Seismic processes and advanced monitoring system. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal 36(4), 50—64 (in Russian).
Shuman V. N., 2015c. Seismoelectromagnetism and spatio-temporal structures Geofizicheskiy zhurnal 37(6), 24—41 (in Russian).
Shuman V. N., 2016b. Spontaneous emission activity of lithosphere and seismoelectromagnetic phenomena. Geofizicheskiy zhurnal 38(2), 79—87 (in Russian).
Aschwanden M. J., Crosby N. B., Dimitropoulou M. et al., 2014. 25 Years of Self-Organized Criticality: Solar and Astrophysics. Spase Sci. Rev., 1—120. doi 10. 1007/S. 11214-014-0054-6.
Bak P., Tang C., Wiesenfeld K. 1987. Self-Organized Criticality: an Explanation of 1/f Noise. Phys. Rev. Lett. 59, 381—384.
How to Cite
Copyright (c) 2020 Geofizicheskiy Zhurnal
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).