Forecasting of production cost and other indices of activity of industrial enterprise

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/2312-8372.2017.103150

Keywords:

economic-mathematical models, multiple regression equation, multiple coefficients of correlations and determination

Abstract

The forecasting of the cost of sales, the income of enterprises of the dairy and construction industries of Ukraine on the basis of statistical data of several enterprises is the object of research. It is necessary building economic-mathematical models for forecasting of the production cost and other economic indices of enterprise activity.

The factors that have the greatest impact on the cost of sales are determined. It is obtained that the first, third and fourth factor signs could be included in the regression model for the researching enterprise of dairy industry.

Correlation-regression analysis is used to analyze and forecast the indices of enterprise activity. Economic-mathematical models are constructed in the form of a linear multiple regression equation. These models describe the relationship between the production cost and the factors which affect on its result for the dairy industry, as well as between the net income of the enterprise of the construction industry of Ukraine and the cost of sales. Multiple correlation  and determination coefficients (0.9566841 and 0.91524451) for the first and (0.972 and 0.945) for the second models are found. These coefficients show that the constructed models are adequate to experimental data and can be used for analysis and forecast of indices of enterprise activity.

The values of -statistics and -criterion show the significance of the model of the cost of sales and the correlation coefficient. The economic-mathematical model is obtained, which allows estimate the dependence of the change of the cost of sales from the change of the expenses of the dairy industry enterprise of Ukraine with a sufficiently high accuracy (95 %).

The obtained models can be used for analysis, forecasting and management of indices of enterprise activity in the system of effective using of enterprise resources, which will lead to rational using of production resources, increase profitability of enterprises.

Author Biography

Katerina Gritcyuk, National Technical University «Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute», 2, Kyrpychova str., Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61002

PhD, Senior Lecturer

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Published

2017-05-30

How to Cite

Gritcyuk, K. (2017). Forecasting of production cost and other indices of activity of industrial enterprise. Technology Audit and Production Reserves, 3(2(35), 47–52. https://doi.org/10.15587/2312-8372.2017.103150

Issue

Vol. 3 No. 2(35) (2017): Information and control systems

Section

Mathematical Modeling: Original Research

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Copyright (c) 2017 Katerina Gritcyuk

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