Estimation of the short circuit accident probability at the overhead electric transmission lines

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/2312-8372.2020.195897

Keywords:

short circuit, power line, technical condition, staff qualification level, meteorological conditions, membership functions, reference matrices

Abstract

The object of research is the probabilistic characteristics of the occurrence of a short circuit (SC) on overhead electric transmission lines (ETL) of voltage classes 110 kV and higher, the failure of which can lead to the development of an accident in the electric power system (EPS). The probabilistic characteristics of the SC occurrence on ETL depend on a large number of factors: the length and route of transmission of power lines, voltage class, weather conditions, and the qualifications of the staff in which charge, management and maintenance the power lines are located. The most problematic issues in assessing the SC occurrence on overhead power lines is the allocation of damage from a SC with general damage statistics, the quantitative consideration of such features of the functioning of overhead ETLs, such as meteorological conditions, the staff qualification level and the technical condition of a single piece of equipment.

In the course of the study, a fuzzy-statistical approach is developed to assess the SC occurrence on an overhead power line taking into account its individual characteristics of work, such as the staff qualification level, meteorological conditions of operation and the technical condition of the power line. To determine the unconditional probability of SC occurrence on an overhead ETL, statistical data on SC on lines of the corresponding voltage class are used. The technical condition of the power lines and meteorological conditions of operation are quantified by fuzzy models, the staff qualification level is determined at standard intervals of the Harrington scale. Conditional probabilities of the state of functioning of power lines are determined using a simplified fuzzy conclusion, which makes it possible to quantify the conditional probability in the absence of clear analytical relationships between the signs of the conditions of power lines.

The results obtained by the developed approach are recommended to be used in the goals of risk-oriented management of the EPS to increase the reliability of operation by reducing the risk of developing a system accident when a SC occurs in the EPS elements. Also, restrictions on the application of the developed approach to the problems of assessing the probability of equipment failure and the organization of risk-based management are identified.

Author Biographies

Volodymyr Litvinov, Affiliate «Dnipro Hydro Power Plant», PJSC «Ukrhydroenergo», 1, Vintera blvd., Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, 69096

PhD

Production and Technical Department

Mykola Kosterev, National Technical University of Ukraine «Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute», 37, Peremohy ave., Kyiv, Ukraine, 03056

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

Department of Renewable Energy Sources

References

  1. Kosterev, M., Litvinov, V. (2018). Priority events determination for the risk-oriented management of electric power system. EUREKA: Physics and Engineering, 3, 21–32. doi: http://doi.org/10.21303/2461-4262.2018.00643
  2. Handschin, E., Jurgens, I., Neumann, C. (2008). Long term optimization for risk-oriented asset management. 16th Power Systems Computation Conference. Glasgow.
  3. Neklepaev, B., Vostrosablin, A. (1999). Veroiatnostnye kharakteristiki korotkikh zamykanii v energosistemakh. Elektrichestvo, 8, 15–23.
  4. Sitnikov, V., Skopincev, V. (2007). Veroiatnostno-statisticheskii podkhod k ocenke resursov elektrosetevogo oborudovaniia v processe ekspluatacii. Elektrichestvo, 11, 9–15.
  5. Neklepaev, B., Vostrosablin, A. (1994). Statisticheskaia veroiatnost vozniknoveniia korotkikh zamykanii v energosistemakh. Elektricheskie stancii, 7, 51–54.
  6. Nazarychev, A., Andreev, D. (2005). Metody i matematicheskie modeli kompleksnoi ocenki tekhnicheskogo sostoianiia elektrooborudovaniia. Ivanovo: IGEU, 224.
  7. Kosteriev, M., Bardyk, Ye. (2011). Pytannia pobudovy nechitkykh modelei otsinky tekhnichnoho stanu obiektiv elektrychnykh system. Kyiv: NTUU «KPI», 148.
  8. Kosteriev, M., Bardyk, Ye., Vozhakov, R. (2011). Nechitke modeliuvannia LEP dlia otsinky ryzyku znyzhennia nadiinosti elektropostachannia. Visnyk VPI, 6, 159–163.
  9. Ciapessoni, E., Cirio, D., Gagleoti, E. (2008). A probabilistic approach for operational risk assessment of power systems. CIGRE, С4–114.
  10. Ciapessoni, E., Cirio, D., Kjolle, G., Massucco, S., Pitto, A., Sforna, M. (2016). Probabilistic Risk-Based Security Assessment of Power Systems Considering Incumbent Threats and Uncertainties. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 7 (6), 2890–2903. doi: http://doi.org/10.1109/tsg.2016.2519239
  11. Bonelli, P., Lacavalla, M., Marcacci, P., Mariani, G., Stella, G. (2011). Wet snow hazard for power lines: a forecast and alert system applied in Italy. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 11 (9), 2419–2431. doi: http://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2419-2011
  12. Lacavalla, M., Marcacci, P., Frigerio, A. (2015). Forecasting and monitoring wet snow sleeve on overhead power lines in Italy. IEEE Workshop on Environmental, Energy and Structural Monitoring Systems Proceedings, 78–83. doi: http://doi.org/10.1109/eesms.2015.7175856
  13. Kosteriev, M., Litvinov, V. (2019). Otsiniuvannia rivnia prypustymoho ryzyku vynyknennia avariinoi sytuatsii v elektroenerhetychnii systemi za dopomohoiu nechitkykh modelei. Elektrotekhnika ta elektroenerhetyka, 2, 43–50.
  14. Remennikov, V. (2005). Upravlencheskie resheniia. Minsk: Iuniti, 144.
  15. Hines, P., Blumsack, S., Sanchez, E., Barrows, C. (2010). The topological and electrical structure of power grids. Proceeds of 43rd Hawaii International Science Conference. Honolulu, 1–10. doi: http://doi.org/10.1109/hicss.2010.398

Downloads

Published

2019-12-24

How to Cite

Litvinov, V., & Kosterev, M. (2019). Estimation of the short circuit accident probability at the overhead electric transmission lines. Technology Audit and Production Reserves, 1(1(51), 26–31. https://doi.org/10.15587/2312-8372.2020.195897

Issue

Vol. 1 No. 1(51) (2020): Industrial and technology systems

Section

Technology and System of Power Supply: Original Research

License

Copyright (c) 2020 Mykola Kosterev, Volodymyr Litvinov

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

The consolidation and conditions for the transfer of copyright (identification of authorship) is carried out in the License Agreement. In particular, the authors reserve the right to the authorship of their manuscript and transfer the first publication of this work to the journal under the terms of the Creative Commons CC BY license. At the same time, they have the right to conclude on their own additional agreements concerning the non-exclusive distribution of the work in the form in which it was published by this journal, but provided that the link to the first publication of the article in this journal is preserved.