Development of a logistic model for energy transition to renewable energy sources with energy security consideration

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/2706-5448.2025.340373

Keywords:

energy transition, renewable energy sources, modeling, energy security, logistic model, forecasting, resilience, risks

Abstract

The object of the study is the process of energy transition to renewable energy sources (RES) at the enterprise or regional level, aimed at replacing traditional carbon-based sources of electricity. One of the most problematic issues is the insufficient consideration of energy security factors in existing forecasting models, which leads to risks of electricity shortages, especially under conditions of RES intermittency and geopolitical challenges such as military attacks or import dependence. A literature review showed that existing models do not account for dynamic constraints in the implementation of RES, which limits their practical applicability for ensuring power system resilience.

In the course of the research, numerical modeling methods were used, in particular an adaptation of the logistic growth equation with an integrated dynamic security factor Sb(t). This makes it possible to fill the gaps in existing models with regard to risk assessment and ensuring system stability. The obtained logistic model predicts the energy transition with RES reaching a 68% share in 24 years for a typical region without compromising security. This is due to the fact that the proposed model has such features as the integration of the coefficient of energy transition rate (CETR) and the dynamic constraint Sb(t), which adapts to changes in demand and reserve. This allows identifying the potential to increase system resilience through the optimal balance of RES and traditional sources during the transition.

As a result, it becomes possible to achieve such indicator values as a 68% share of RES, owing to the model’s flexibility to local conditions (variations of ρ, γ, k) and the consideration of worst-case scenarios (CF.min). Compared with similar known models, this provides advantages such as adaptability to regional risks, more accurate forecasting of the transition rate, and reduction of blackout probability. This is particularly relevant for vulnerable power systems, both in Ukraine and worldwide.

Author Biographies

Oleksii Zhukov, Vinnytsia National Technical University

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Computerized Electromechanical Systems and Complexes

Serhii Boiko, National University “Zaporizhzhia Polytechnic”

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Transportation Technologies

Andrii Koval, Vinnytsia National Technical University

PhD

Department of Computerized Electromechanical Systems and Complexes

Olekcii Kotov, National University “Zaporizhzhia Polytechnic”

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

Department of Military Training

Sviatoslav Vyshnevsʹkyy, Vinnytsia National Technical University

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Electrical Power Stations and Systems

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Development of a logistic model for energy transition to renewable energy sources with energy security consideration

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Published

2025-10-30

How to Cite

Zhukov, O., Boiko, S., Koval, A., Kotov, O., & Vyshnevsʹkyy, S. (2025). Development of a logistic model for energy transition to renewable energy sources with energy security consideration. Technology Audit and Production Reserves, 5(1(85), 63–69. https://doi.org/10.15587/2706-5448.2025.340373

Issue

Vol. 5 No. 1(85) (2025): Industrial and technology systems

Section

Technology and System of Power Supply

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Copyright (c) 2025 Oleksii Zhukov, Serhii Boiko, Andrii Koval, Olekcii Kotov, Sviatoslav Vyshnevsʹkyy

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