Formation of the integral indicator of economic security of the region by taxonomy method

Abstract

The object of research is the economic security of the regions of Ukraine. One of the most problematic places is the lack of a generally accepted methodology for assessing the economic security of regions. Therefore, the aim of this research is an attempt to form an integral indicator of economic security of regions by the taxonomy method.

To achieve this aim, methods of theoretical generalization, analysis and synthesis, logical generalization, analogies, comparative comparison, the method of taxonomic analysis are applied. The method of taxonomic analysis makes it possible to construct a general estimation of a complex object or process, namely, the indicator of economic security of regions. The method of retrospective analysis makes it possible to study the dynamics and determine trends in the changes in the integral index of economic security in the regions of Ukraine.

The integral index of economic security of regions is calculated by the method of taxonomy for the period 2008–2015. Based on the results of the calculations, it is concluded that Dnipropetrovsk region holds the first place for almost the whole period of the study: 2008 – 0.67; 2009 – 0.58; 2010 – 0.7; 2011 – 0.72; 2012 and 2013 – 0.67; 2014 – 0.59 and 2015 – 0.65 points. An exception is 2009, when a high value of economic security was recorded in the Donetsk region (0.62). Throughout the study period, the low value of the economic security indicator was recorded in the Chernivtsi region, except for 2015 with the lowest value of 0.05 in the Luhansk region. The discrepancy between the maximum and minimum values of the integral index of economic security fluctuates on the average at the level of 0.55 points from 0.49 (2014) to 0.6 (2015). This is a rather significant deviation. At the same time, based on the results of the calculations, it is possible to assert that there is a tendency to increase disproportions in ensuring economic security of the regions.

Applied nature of the proposed methodology is justified by its practical application according to the actual data of social and economic development of the regions of Ukraine for 2008–2015. The disadvantage of the proposed methodology is the absence of a mathematical model for calculating the integral index of economic security of the regions, but the results of the study allow in the subsequent studies to develop regression forecast models for assessing regional economic security.