Development of information technology for the automated construction and expansion of the temporal knowledge base in the tasks of supporting management decisions
Keywords:management decision, decision support, temporal dependence, temporal knowledge base
The object of research is the process of knowledge base (KB) constructing, which involves the development of a formal presentation of knowledge, knowledge extraction, verification of their consistency and inclusion in the KB. The implementation of such a process is a necessary condition to use KB in systems supporting management decisions at the tactical and strategic levels of organizational management. However, there is currently a discrepancy between the practical need for implementation, knowledge-based support for managerial decisions under uncertainty, taking into account the temporal aspect of managing action and also the possibilities of existing techniques and technologies of interactive and automated construction of the KB.
The analysis of the research object testifies to the possibility of automated construction of the KB to support managerial decisions using temporal dependencies. The latter can be obtained based on the analysis of the sequence of states corresponds to the behavior of an organizational system as an object of management. Temporal dependencies between states represent the knowledge of control actions that have been implemented in managing decisions.
The logical-probabilistic model of temporal knowledge representation is improved by taking into account the hierarchical description of the management solution context, which makes it possible to simplify the construction of this solution. The proposed model provides the ability to support a rational choice from a variety of admissible management decisions by the probability of transition to the target state of the control object.
The method of automated construction and support of the temporal KB based on the account of the attributive description of the control object state and the context of the management solution is improved. The method involves the rapid formation and verification of the logical-probabilistic representation of temporal knowledge to support management decisions.
The information technology of automated construction and replenishment of temporal KBs is developed. Technology combines the capability of generating representation patterns and semantic verification of knowledge. The verification is performed by a specialist in the subject area. The automatic construction of weighted temporal rules based on the detection of dependencies in known state sequences of the control object. This makes it possible to quickly identify the new temporal dependencies for the subject area and bring them to the KB after semantic verification by an expert.
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