The estimation of probability of the downtime of the vehicles under the changing conditions of the port industrial process

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/2312-8372.2015.52195

Keywords:

port terminal, port industrial process, a simple means of transport, probabilistic indicators

Abstract

The estimation of the probability of downtime of the means of transport at varying conditions of port industrial process was suggested which affect the intensity and the time of processing vessel. The number of means of transport at the port terminal at a time and the number of efficient handling machines is referred under the productive process. The approach is based on the theory of queuing systems operating in a random environment.

The case of direct interaction option of two transport streams were considered   at one berth. To solve this problem  the use of a special algorithm is provided, which is a combination of the probability of an asymptotic expansion in powers of a small parameter and matrix algorithm. The results allowed to formulate probabilistic indicators of port industrial process under varying conditions.

The practical use of these parameters enables the management of a port terminal for more efficient process control and forecasting of possible economic losses caused by the decrease in the intensity of means of transport handling.

Author Biography

Татьяна Евгеньевна Корниец, Odessa National Maritime University, 34, Mechnikov Str., Odessa, Ukraine, 65029

Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor

Department seaports operations

References

  1. Belyaev, Yu. K., Bogatyrev, V. A., Bolotin, V. V. et al.; In:. Ushakov, I. A. (1985). The reliability of technical systems. Directory. Moscow: Radio and Communications, 608.
  2. Gnedenko, B. V., Belyaev, Y. K., Solovyev, A. D. (1965). Mathematical methods in the theory of reliability. Moscow: Nauka, 524.
  3. Korniets, T. E. (2006). On some problems of the design safety management system port equipment. Methods and tools for managing the development of transport systems, 11, 175–191.
  4. Postan, M., Korniets, T., Moskalyuk, L. (2014). Development of method of risk assessment of ship’s demmurage as a result of restricted relaibility of port’s mechanisms. Technology Audit And Production Reserves, 5(2(19)), 69–75. doi:10.15587/2312-8372.2014.26740
  5. Voevudskiy, E. N., Postan, M. Ya. (1987). Stochastic models in the projection and management of the ports. Мoscow: Transport, 318.
  6. Gnedenko, B. V., Kovalenko, I. N. (2005). Introduction to queuing theory. Ed. 3. Moscow: KomKniga, 400.
  7. Postan, M. Ya. (2006). Multi-channeled serving system with constant service time in a random environment. Economic cybernetic, 3-4 (39-49), 62–68
  8. Postan, M. Ya. (2006). Economic-mathematical models of multimodal transportation. Odessa: Astroprint, 376.
  9. Basharin, G. P. (1978). The matrix method for finding the stationary distribution for some non-standard queuing systems. Automation and Remote Control, 1, 29–38.
  10. Legato, P., Mazza, R. M. (2001, September). Berth planning and resources optimisation at a container terminal via discrete event simulation. European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 133, № 3, 537–547. doi:10.1016/s0377-2217(00)00200-9
  11. Kia, M., Shayan, E., Ghotb, F. (2002, April). Investigation of port capacity under a new approach by computer simulation. Computers & Industrial Engineering, Vol. 42, № 2-4, 533–540. doi:10.1016/s0360-8352(02)00051-7

Downloads

Published

2015-09-22

How to Cite

Корниец, Т. Е. (2015). The estimation of probability of the downtime of the vehicles under the changing conditions of the port industrial process. Technology Audit and Production Reserves, 5(5(25), 61–64. https://doi.org/10.15587/2312-8372.2015.52195

Issue

Vol. 5 No. 5(25) (2015): Economics and management of enterprise. Development of the productive forces and regional economy. Economic cybernetics

Section

Economic Cybernetics: Original Research

License

Copyright (c) 2016 Татьяна Евгеньевна Корниец

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

The consolidation and conditions for the transfer of copyright (identification of authorship) is carried out in the License Agreement. In particular, the authors reserve the right to the authorship of their manuscript and transfer the first publication of this work to the journal under the terms of the Creative Commons CC BY license. At the same time, they have the right to conclude on their own additional agreements concerning the non-exclusive distribution of the work in the form in which it was published by this journal, but provided that the link to the first publication of the article in this journal is preserved.