Transformation of methodological principles of climate threat assessment in the agrosphere

Abstract

The objectives of the article include: systematisation of climate change and a brief description of its manifestations and consequences; analysis of the formation of socio-political and scientific worldviews on climate change; research into existing climate models and concepts for responding to climate change, in particular adaptation; developing recommendations for identifying areas suitable for life and agricultural activity, taking into account climate threats. In contemporary international political and scientific discourse, two key approaches to explaining the causes of global climate change are distinguished, one of which is clearly dominant. The vast majority of researchers adhere to the position that the anthropogenic factor is decisive: intensive human economic activity, accompanied by an increase in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions, leads to an intensification of the greenhouse effect. At the same time, alternative concepts presented by some natural scientists link climate variability to natural processes, in particular biotic mechanisms, changes in solar activity, tectonic dynamics and volcanism. It was concluded that the assertion that climate change is a natural process of the Earth's development and does not depend on the existence of humans and their activities is more realistic and should form the basis of the methodology for adapting agriculture to climate change. It is noted that an important component of modern methodological developments is the modelling and forecasting of climate change. A brief description is provided of the most widely recognised climate models: EUROPA-MODELL, ECHAM4, REMO, RegCM3, HIRLAM, RCA3. It was noted that, on the initiative of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, standards and scenarios for climate projections were established within the framework of the World Climate Research Program’s model intercomparison projects (CMIP5, CMIP6). It was emphasised that the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 models were taken as the basis for climate and economic forecasts in agriculture by many scientists from different countries around the world. It has been shown that models for adapting agricultural production to climate change should be based on an analysis of actual climate change in the region and country (and not just temperature increases due to CO2), forecasts of climate disasters (earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, whirlwinds) affecting Ukraine, and vary according to scenarios depending on the manifestations of these disasters and their consequences. General conclusions on climate change for Ukraine are presented in accordance with four RCP scenarios. In particular, it is noted that the greatest reduction in agricultural production by 2070 due to climate change is possible in the Steppe zone: a probable reduction in wheat production by 11% under the RCP 4.5 scenario and by 18% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The resilience of rural areas to climate threats is considered in the form of recommendations that will influence the prospects for agribusiness development and the existence of the agricultural sector.