Crisis management of radioactively contaminated territories: socio-economic barriers to recovery in Ukraine’s Polissia region

Abstract

The article is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of the socio-economic barriers to the recovery of radioactively contaminated territories in Ukraine’s Polissia region within the framework of crisis ecological management. The study covers the five regions most affected by the Chornobyl nuclear disaster — Volyn, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Rivne, and Chernihiv oblasts — for the period 2010–2021, with a retrospective analysis of demographic processes since 1991 and an assessment of the impact of the full-scale war that began in 2022. The methodology is based on an interdisciplinary approach that combines statistical and correlation analysis, the comparative-geographical method, and dynamic time-series analysis. The information base consists of data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, regional statistical offices, the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine, and international organisations. The results reveal a catastrophic demographic crisis, with population decline ranging from 11% to 31% depending on the region, critically high unemployment with pronounced gender differentiation, and a dangerous economic dependence of the population on subsistence farming. Up to 40% of rural households’ income is derived from the sale of products from private plots and forest goods, creating a vicious circle of consumption of potentially contaminated produce. The study also identifies the problem of energy poverty: more than half of rural dwellings are heated with firewood from local forests in the complete absence of legislative standards for radioactive contamination of fuel wood. Correlation analysis established a non-linear relationship between the level of radioactive contamination and socio-economic indicators, with the strongest linkages observed in the most heavily contaminated zones. Four self-reinforcing vicious cycles were identified: poverty — risk, depopulation — degradation, disinvestment, and education — human capital, collectively forming a “depression trap”. The superimposition of the military conflict has created a “triple crisis” situation, dramatically narrowing the scope for managerial solutions. The findings demonstrate that radioactive contamination does not act as a direct cause but rather as a catalyst of socio-economic depression, generating additional barriers to development. The conclusions have practical implications for the design of crisis management strategies and regional policy, emphasising the need for comprehensive rehabilitation programmes supported by large-scale external assistance and systemic structural reforms.