Analysis of global gravitational precursors before some Asian strong earthquakes


  • E. Khalilov Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes, Azerbaijan
  • L. Wang Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration, China
  • L. Khalilova Azerbaijan State Oil and Industry University, Azerbaijan



earthquake prediction, gravitational precursors, tectonic waves, ATROPATENA station, seismology, geodynamics, geotectonics


The authors consider the gravitational precursors of Mega Earthquakes in Asia and Southeast Asia: Sichuan earthquake, M7.9, May 12, 2008; Andaman Islands earthquake, M7.5, August 10, 2009; Samoa Islands earthquake, M8.1, September 29, 2009; Northern Sumatra earthquake, M7.8, April 06,2010; Tohoku earthquake, M9, March 11, 2011. All gravitational precursors were recorded using of ATROPATENA earthquake prediction stations. The creation of an international earthquake prediction system based on the results obtained is proposed. To monitor spatio-temporal variations of the gravitational field, special detectors named ATROPATENA stations have been developed and made. The detectors continuously measure the value of the gravitational constant G in mutually perpendicular directions and relative values of gravity Δg. Before and after the Mega Earthquakes in Asia and Southeast Asia, variations of the Earth’s gravitational field were registered at large distances from the epicenter (near 8000 km); they were measured with the ATROPATENA stations in the following location: Baku (Azerbaijan) and Yogyakarta (Indonesia). Indications of the Cavendish balance when measuring the gravitational constant G are influenced by spatio-temporal changes in external gravitational fields of geological origin, which alter over time indications of the true values of G. Measuring the true value of the gravitational constant G on the Earth’s surface with accuracy greater than the second digit after the decimal point is not possible due to the spatio-temporal variations of the gravitational field as a result of the impact of geodynamic processes.

For the first time, the true cause of variations of the recorded values of the gravitational constant G has been identified. These variations were the subject of scientific dispute throughout the last century.


Elsasser, W. H. (1969). Convection and stress propagation in the upper mantle. Earth and Planetary Interiors., (223—246), New York: Willey.

Geller, R. J. (1997). Earthquake prediction: a critical review. Geophysical Journal International, 131(3), 425—50. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X. 1997.tb06588.x.

Geller, R. J., Jackson, D. D., Kagan, Y. Y. & Mulargia, F. (1997). Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Science, 275, 1616—1618. doi: 10.1126/science.275.5306.1616.

Gorbunova, E. A., & Sherman, S. I. (2012). Slow deformation waves in the lithosphere: Registration, parameters, and geodynamic analysis (Central Asia). Russian Journal of Pacific Geology, 6(1), 13—20. S181971401201006X.

Hasanov, A. A., & Keramova, R. A. (2006). Reflection of global geodynamical processes in seismic-geochemical mode of fluids of Azerbaijan at the example of catastrophic earthquake in the Indian Ocean (26.12.04; MLH=8.9). In Geophysics of XXI century: Collection of works of the Seventh Geophysical Readings named after V. V. Fedynsky (pp. 326—330). Moscow: Nauchnyy Mir (in Russian).

Keilis-Borok, V. I. (1999). What comes next in the dynamics of lithosphere and earthquake prediction? Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 111(3-4), 179—327.

Khain, V. E., & Khalilov, E. N. (2006). Tideless variations of gravity before strong distant earthquakes. In Science Without Borders (Vol. 2, pp. 319—339). Innsbruck: SWB.

Khalilov, E. N. (2009a). About influence of geodynamic processes on the results of measurements of Cavendish balance. In Science Without Borders (Vol. 3, pp. 398—410). Innsbruck: SWB.

Khalilov, E. N. (2013). Earthquake prediction method and device for the implementation thereof. Geneva. WO 2013/096997, Eurasian Patent 018373. Geneva: World Intellectual Property Organization.

Khalilov, E. N. (2009b). Global Network for the Fo¬recasting of Earthquakes. International System of Geodynamics Monitoring. London: SWB, 38 p. 1/GNFE_Broshure_new.pdf.

Khalilov, E. N. (2004). Gravitational waves and geodynamics. Baku-Berlin-Moscow: ICSD/IAS.

Khalilov, E. N., Starostenko, V. I., Kendzera, A. V., Mubarak, A., Qaisar, M., Sjamsinarsi, R., Sartohadi, J., Wahyudi, & Yatman, C. (2011). Global gravitational effects before and after strong M8.9 JAPAN earthquake of March 11, 2011. Proc. Int. Congress. «Natural Cataclysms and Global Problems of the Modern Civilization» Istanbul, 19-21 September, 2011 (pp. 57—69). Istanbul: SWB.

Kopilova, G. N., Pinegina, T. K., & Smolina, N. N. (2007). Seismic-hydro-geological effects of the strongest earthquakes (at the example of Kamchatka region). Proc. of scientific meeting. Problems of modern seismic geology and geodynamics of Central and Eastern Asia (Vol. 2, pp. 166—173). Irkutsk: Publ. SB RAS.

Lehner, F. K., Li, V. C., & Rice, J. R. (1981). Stress diffusion along rupturing plate boundaries. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 86(B7), 6155—6169.

Ludwin, R. S. (2001). Earthquake Prediction. Washington Geology, 28(3), 27.

Lyubushin, A. A. (2008). Microseismic noise in the low frequency range (Periods of 1—300 min): Properties and possible prognostic features. Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth, 44(4), 275—290. doi: 10.1134/S1069351308040022.

Petrova, L. N., Orlov, E. G., & Karpinskiy, V. V. (2005). Large-scale deformations of the Earth before strong earthquakes on the observations with the help of seismic-gravimeters. Physical bases of forecasting the rock failure. Thesis of reports of VII International school-seminar. Geophysical observatory «Borok», 17―21 October 2005. Moscow, 46 p.

Sobolev, G. A., Lyubushin, A. A., & Zakrzhevskaya, N. A. (2008). Asymmetric impulses, periodicity and synchronization of low-frequency microseisms. Journal of Volcanology and Seismology, 2(2), 135—152. doi: 10.1134/S074204630802005X.




How to Cite

Khalilov, E., Wang, L., & Khalilova, L. (2019). Analysis of global gravitational precursors before some Asian strong earthquakes. Geofizičeskij žurnal, 41(2), 141–155.