Analysis of dynamics of man-made fires in conditions of urbanization in Ukraine




urbanization processes, ecological safety, emergency, fire of man-made genesis, risk to the population


Research subject is the dynamics of manifestations of fires of man-made origin in urban settlements in relation to the demographic changes in urbanization processes in the period 1997–2017. The problem cause of increase of urbanization is global climatic changes which is initiates fires. Those fires are one of the most dangerous events with large numbers of victims and significant material losses.

The methodology for studying the dynamics of manifestations of emergencies of man-made origin has never considered relationship between the rate of urbanization in Ukraine over the past 20 years and demographic changes.

The study uses a statistically-analytical and functional method for estimating the number of fires. The study shows a high degree of correlation between the decrease in the number of fires and the reduction in population density with a slow pace of urbanization over the last 20 years. The basis for the positive dynamics of the manifestations of fires is the objective conditions of the technogenic-urban environment and the subjective factors associated with the human factor.

It is shown that the demographic factor affects the growth of the risk of human deaths on one side and the number of fires of man-made origin is reduced on the other side, in case of urbanization on the level of up to 67 %. Next level up of urbanization leads to a sharp increase in the number of emergencies. At the same time, the tendency to reduce the risk of death from fires with a decrease in population density and an increase in the level of urbanization above 67 %.

The effect of reducing the vulnerability of the urban population, except demographic factor, is related of providing cities with significant human, technical and material resources.

Due to the revealed correlations of demographic and urban factors with the dynamics of the manifestation of fires, we are able to develop measures to monitor, prevent and eliminate the consequences of fires in populated areas. A risk-based fire-fighting strategy is applicable to protect people and property in areas of high population density.

Author Biographies

Kateryna Vasiutinska, Odessa National Polytechnic University, 1, Shevchenko ave., Odessa, Ukraine, 65044

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Applied Ecology and Hydrogasdynamics

Sergey Barbashev, Odessa National Polytechnic University, 1, Shevchenko ave., Odessa, Ukraine, 65044

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

Department of Nuclear Power Plants


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How to Cite

Vasiutinska, K., & Barbashev, S. (2018). Analysis of dynamics of man-made fires in conditions of urbanization in Ukraine. Technology Audit and Production Reserves, 4(3(42), 16–23.



Ecology and Environmental Technology: Original Research