Logistics risk assessment and the development of a risk-oriented controlling approach under uncertainty

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/2706-5448.2026.358478

Keywords:

controlling, logistics risks, supply chains, logistics risk environment, logistics system resilience

Abstract

The object of research is the process of management and functioning of logistics systems of the European Union countries and Ukraine under conditions of uncertainty and crisis phenomena. The problem addressed is the lack of a methodologically formalized link between the type of logistics risk environment and the choice of a controlling model capable of ensuring efficiency and resilience of logistics processes. The results are based on internationally comparable indicators, including the logistics performance index, time to export procedures, the transport services cost index, and the political stability and absence of violence index. After data standardization, k-means cluster analysis identified three types of logistics risk environments in the European Union with different levels of risk exposure. This confirms the heterogeneity of logistics risk profiles across EU countries and limits the applicability of unified controlling models focused exclusively on efficiency. A comparative assessment of Ukraine relative to average cluster values revealed an extreme logistics risk environment. It is characterized by a 22–31% lower Logistics Performance Index, a 2.7–4.3 times longer time required for export procedures, a 24–35% higher transport services cost index, and a significant deterioration in institutional parameters compared with the average values of all EU clusters. A mechanism for selecting a risk-oriented logistics controlling model depending on the operating conditions of the system has been developed, which enhances the validity of managerial decisions and the resilience of logistics processes. A distinctive feature of the results is the proposed mechanism for selecting a risk-oriented controlling model depending on the type of logistics environment. The findings can be used by enterprises and logistics governance bodies to develop logistics risk monitoring systems, improve management accounting and logistics cost budgeting, and design anti-crisis solutions under conditions of uncertainty and crises.

Author Biographies

Nataliіa Sablina, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Finance and Credit

Oleksandr Burtsev, Odesa National University of Technology

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Marketing, Entrepreneurship and Trade

Oleksandr Darushyn, Odesa National University of Technology

PhD

Department of Management and Logistics

Volodymyr Shalenyi, Odesa National University of Technology

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Trade Entrepreneurship, Commodity Studies and Business Management

Vasyl Petrushov, Livestock Farming Institute of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine

PhD, Associate Professor

Valerii Bereza, Livestock Farming Institute of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine

PhD

Inna Sabadash, Livestock Farming Institute of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine

PhD

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Logistics risk assessment and the development of a risk-oriented controlling approach under uncertainty

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Published

2026-06-19

How to Cite

Sablina, N., Burtsev, O., Darushyn, O., Shalenyi, V., Petrushov, V., Bereza, V., & Sabadash, I. (2026). Logistics risk assessment and the development of a risk-oriented controlling approach under uncertainty. Technology Audit and Production Reserves, 3(4(89), 56–66. https://doi.org/10.15587/2706-5448.2026.358478

Issue

Vol. 3 No. 4(89) (2026): Economics of enterprises. Macroeconomics

Section

Economic Cybernetics

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Copyright (c) 2026 Nataliіa Sablina, Oleksandr Burtsev, Oleksandr Darushyn, Volodymyr Shalenyi, Vasyl Petrushov, Valerii Bereza, Inna Sabadash

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