Developing a composite economic efficiency index for Ukraine’s agricultural post-war transformation: recycling, bioenergy, and export-import regulatory mechanisms

Abstract

The object of this research is Ukraine’s agricultural sector undergoing structural transformation towards sustainable development. The analysis focuses on three interconnected dimensions of this transformation: agricultural recycling, bioenergy development, and regulatory mechanisms supporting sustainable change, including export-import governance. The research addresses the lack of integrated quantitative tools capable of assessing the effectiveness of agricultural transformation across these dimensions under wartime conditions and within the context of Ukraine’s European integration agenda. Since February 2022, the Ukrainian agricultural sector has faced unprecedented challenges resulting from military aggression. Total losses have been estimated at 80.1 billion USD, the area of cultivated land has decreased by approximately 1.9 million hectares, and traditional maritime export routes have become vulnerable to external disruptions. Drawing on verified data from the World Bank, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the European Parliamentary Research Service, a Composite Economic Efficiency Index (EEI) was developed to evaluate the sector’s transformation. The index combines four dimensions: the Trade Efficiency Index (TEI, w = 0.30), the Bioenergy Efficiency Index (BEI, w = 0.25), the Recycling Efficiency Index (REI, w = 0.25), and the Green Economy Index (GEI, w = 0.20).The EEI declined from 0.447 in 2021 to its lowest value of 0.337 in 2022, reflecting the immediate impact of the war. Subsequently, the indicator recovered and reached 0.468 in 2024. However, this recovery has been uneven across the analyzed dimensions. While the TEI increased to 0.96, the BEI (0.090) and REI (0.250) remained substantially below their projected 2030 benchmark levels. These findings suggest that the restoration of export volumes through the Grain Corridor should not be interpreted as evidence of deep structural transformation. Without targeted investments in biomethane production, recycling infrastructure, and circular economy initiatives, the sector largely continues to follow its pre-war commodity-export model. Under conditions of a legally secured multilateral framework for the Grain Corridor and consistent government support for scaling bioenergy production, the EEI could increase to approximately 0.55 by 2030.The proposed approach and obtained results may support strategic planning for the post-war recovery of Ukraine’s agricultural sector and provide analytical input for negotiations related to the agricultural chapter of the country’s accession process to the European Union.