Forecasting of traffic flow parameters in the planning of highways

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/2312-8372.2015.51865

Keywords:

road safety audit, traffic flow composition, forecasting, traffic flow intensity

Abstract

Existing methods of forecasting the traffic flow are analyzed. Five types of forecast by period for which it is executed and three groups of models for forecasting approach to traffic flow are marked. It is found that for solving road safety audit at the planning stage of roads are useful methods of long-term forecast. It is proposed to use a balance method, which is based on the use of the incoming data of the traffic composition. Groups of the vehicles as part of the traffic flow are marked, which should be considered when planning and designing roads. To predict the composition of perspective traffic flow it is proposed the method based on Bayesian forecasting. The proposed approach can be applied to the road safety audit at the planning stage of roads.

Author Biographies

Людмила Сергіївна Абрамова, Kharkiv National Automobile and Highway University, Str. Petrovskogo, 25, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61002

Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor

Department of organization and road safety

Валерій Вікторович Ширін, Kharkiv National Automobile and Highway University, Str. Petrovskogo, 25, Kharkiv, Ukraine, 61002

Candidate of Technical Science

Department of organization and road safety

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Published

2015-09-22

How to Cite

Абрамова, Л. С., & Ширін, В. В. (2015). Forecasting of traffic flow parameters in the planning of highways. Technology Audit and Production Reserves, 5(3(25), 47–51. https://doi.org/10.15587/2312-8372.2015.51865

Issue

Vol. 5 No. 3(25) (2015): Systems and control processes. Information and control systems

Section

Systems and Control Processes: Original Research

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Copyright (c) 2016 Людмила Сергіївна Абрамова, Валерій Вікторович Ширін

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