Forecasting of the performance of the shipboard electric power system on the basis of the artificial neural network

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/2312-8372.2017.108528

Keywords:

forecasting of the state of the shipboard electric power system, coefficient of the generalized parameter, artificial neural network

Abstract

To date, the main limiting factor in development of forecasting systems based on mathematical methods of data processing, which in most cases is reduced to solving linear deterministic multiparameter problems, is the performance of a computer. Therefore, considerable attention is paid to development and research of neural network methods for solving such problems, which is explained by the inherent massively parallel processing of information that allows building high-performance computing systems.

In connection with this, the aim of this work is development of a system for predicting the SEPS performance on the basis of an artificial neural network implemented by the architecture of a multilayer perceptron. The problem of parameter normalization is solved, caused by the fact that the SEPS mode is characterized by parameters of different physical nature that have different dimensions. The task of training an artificial neural network is also solved. As a learning method, the back propagation algorithm is chosen. For the formation of a rational training sample used in the learning of an artificial neural network, mathematical methods of temporary extrapolation are used. The analysis of the obtained results shows that the value of the mean absolute error on the test set is 3.8 %. This allows to judge the possibility of using an artificial neural network to solve the problems of predicting the SEPS state.

Author Biographies

Irina Gvozdeva, National University «Odessa Maritime Academy», 8, Didrikhsona str., Odessa, Ukraine, 65029

Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

Department of Ship’s Electrical Equipment and Automation

Valery Lukovtsev, National University «Odessa Maritime Academy», 8, Didrikhsona str., Odessa, Ukraine, 65029

PhD, Associate Professor

Department of Ship’s Electrical Equipment and Automation 

Sergii Tierielnyk, National University «Odessa Maritime Academy», 8, Didrikhsona str., Odessa, Ukraine, 65029

Postgraduate Student

Department of Ship’s Electrical Equipment and Automation

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Published

2017-07-25

How to Cite

Gvozdeva, I., Lukovtsev, V., & Tierielnyk, S. (2017). Forecasting of the performance of the shipboard electric power system on the basis of the artificial neural network. Technology Audit and Production Reserves, 4(1(36), 43–49. https://doi.org/10.15587/2312-8372.2017.108528

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 1(36) (2017): Industrial and Technology Systems

Section

Technology and System of Power Supply: Original Research

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Copyright (c) 2017 Sergii Tierielnyk, Valery Lukovtsev, Irina Gvozdeva

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