Usyk Y. Cyclicality of economic development – challenges for Ukraine

Abstract

Work is devoted to studying the laws of economic systems’ cyclical development, including the global economy. The author focuses attention on big cycles (technological cycles). According to the theory of N. Kondratieff, a dynamic scientific and technological progress, the related economic growth and socio-economic processes is the basic element of the long-term cyclicality. Each of them develops according to its own laws and is caused by specific pulses that merge into one circular wave. The continuation of this theory became the views of Schumpeter, who argued that innovation is called to lifelong waves of business activity; he regarded them as "a manifestation of the technological revolution and its consequences". The statistical analysis of the world economic dynamics for the period of 1961-2014 years, revealed the presence of two deep crises of 1980-1982 and 2008-2010. Comparing the data with the S. Glazyev theory of technological structures, the author came to the conclusion that today humanity is at the stage of active development of the sixth technological order. After analysis of the Ukrainian industry’s technological structure, came to the conclusion that today technology the third and fourth orders are dominated in Ukraine. The fifth order is accounting for up to 10% of the industry. To speed up release of the domestic economy from the crisis and improve the competitiveness of the domestic industry, the author considers it appropriate not to catch up with the leading countries, introducing partially obsolete technologies of the fifth technological order, but introduce the latest, relevant technologies of the sixth technological order, namely, molecular biology, genetic engineering, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence systems, global information networks and others.