Estimated-predictive modeling of geodemographical system, case study of Kharkiv region

Abstract

Formulation of the problem. Forecasting and modeling of certain areas of public life do not lose their relevance in underlying programs and regional development plans. Responding to the social demand, human geography expands research tool as an interdisciplinary science providing combination of research results of spatial analysis and forecast with measures of the societal management monitoring. The human-geographical concept of the region s geodemographic system provides its modeling development. There are various methods and techniques of forecasting and modeling a number, composition and movement of the population. We believe that their addition by the estimated-predictive model of the geodemographic system significantly expands opportunities for the scientifically based results.
The purpose of the article is to assess major trends of regional geodemographic system of Kharkiv region and highlights the results of estimated-predictive modeling.
Methods. In order to show the changes in the geodemographical system balance equation is used. This method describes each settlement or local geodemographical system consisting of regional geodemographical system. The general algorithm of estimated-predictive model of social position and geographical concepts of geodemographical development of the region is displayed.
Results. According to the simulation results for each year of the forecast period (20 years) population distribution by age group, the average population age, the number of migrants for each age group, the entropy information for each object and for each age group were calculated. Three scenario variants of the geodemographical regional system development were reproduced in the model. The first one preserves current vital parameters (beginning 2016), optimistic (with rising birth rates and migration activity) and average (with increased birth). For each option a situation when migrants are hosted by the cities of regional subordination including the regional center was described: 1 (Kharkiv), 2 (Kharkiv and Kupiansk), 3 (Kharkiv, Kupiansk, Izum) and 4 (Kharkiv, Kupiansk, Izum, Lozovaja).
Scientific novelty and practical significance. Estimated-predictive model of the regional geodemographical system is a versatile tool for research and social management and can be used for solving a variety of problems - from assessment and prognosis of the most common trends of regional geodemographical system to a specific demographic of detailed studies of local communities and settlements. Possibilities to apply the estimated-predictive model for regional geodemographical development are designated.