Winter synoptic processes that cause large anomalies of extreme-low air temperatures in Eastern Europe
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26565/2410-7360-2018-49-13Keywords:
synoptic processes, extreme-low temperatures, Eastern EuropeAbstract
Formulation of the problem. Extreme-low temperatures are an adverse phenomenon for the country’s economy and human living conditions. It is important to have a climatological estimation of typical locations and probability of extreme-low temperatures caused by different synoptic processes, which ideally should be predicted in advance.
The purpose of the article. The paper describes the typical synoptic processes that lead to extreme-low temperatures over the past 20 years (1997-2017) in middle latitudes in Eastern Europe. The probability of significant areas with extreme-low temperature and their typical localization during various synoptic processes was investigated.
Methods. Definition of “extreme-low temperatures” refers to the temperatures below the 5th percentile of the surface actual temperature distribution in each grid point. To create the sample, anomalies of extreme-low air temperatures over significant areas (more than 20 percent of the sector) were chosen. To divide the synoptic processes into groups, a synoptic analysis was applied.
Results. From the sample of 1997-2017, 75 episodes with large areas of extreme-low temperature were identified. The sample contains 13 episodes that cover more than 30% of the Eastern Europe and last from 2 to 11 days, and 12 episodes that have one day duration. Cases with anomalies occupy from 20 to 30% of the territory rarely lasts more than 2-3 days (11 episodes). There are five main groups of processes that lead to significant air temperature anomalies that cover a large area of the chosen domain. These five groups of situations include 75% of all days with large areas of extreme-low air temperature. The first group of processes: there is the movement of the cyclone from the Black Sea towards the Volga river basin region, with the anticyclone located in the northwest of Russia displacing towards the Baltic region or Scandinavia. In this case, temperature anomalies cover almost the entire eastern part of the selected sector. The second group of processes: a vast anticyclone, expanding from Western Siberia in the direction of Belarus (extreme-low temperatures most of time observed in the central part of the sector). The third group of processes: the movement of the “southern” cyclone from the Black Sea to the territory of Ukraine with subsequent displacement to the east (extreme-low temperatures most of time observed in the north-eastern part of the sector). The fourth group of processes: motionless anticyclone over the northeast of the Eastern European sector (high probability of extreme-low temperatures in the south-eastern part of the sector). The fifth group of processes: the northward trajectory of the “southern” cyclone to the territory of Ukraine while strengthening of the anticyclone over the Scandinavia. This one is similar to the first group of processes but differ by more western trajectories of cyclones, and hence different locations of extreme temperature anomalies (north-western part of the sector and eastern part of Ukraine). The remaining 25% of the days with large anomalies are mostly short-lived and observed during 1-2 days.
Scientific novelty and practical significance. The created catalogue of processes will allow recognizing the potential extreme situations that might be useful for middle and long-range forecasting.References
Vangengeym, G.YA. (1952). Osnovy makrotsirkulyatsionnogo metoda dolgosrochnykh meteorologicheskikh prognozov dlya Arktiki [The basics of the macrocirculation method for long-term meteorological forecasts for the Arctic region]. Tr. AANII, 314.
Voskresenskaya, Ye.N., Naumova, V.A., Yevstigneyev, M.P., Yevstigneyev, V.P. (2009). Klassifikatsiya sinoptich-eskikh protsessov shtormov v Azovo-Chernomorskom baseyne [Classification of synoptic processes with storms in the Azov and Black Sea basin]. Tr. UkrNIGMI, 258, 189-200.
Girs, A.A. (1974). Makrotsirkulyatsionnyy metod dolgosrochnykh meteorologicheskikh prognozov [Macrocircula-tion method of long-term meteorological forecasts]. Leningrad.: Gidrometeoizdat, 488.
Dzerdzeyevskiy, B.L., Monin, A.S. (1954). Tipovyye skhemy obshchey tsirkulyatsii atmosfery i indeks tsirkulyatsii [Typical schemes of the general circulation of the atmosphere and circulation index]. Izv. AN SSSR. Ser. Geofiz, 6,
-574.
Fizyko-statystychnyy analiz ta prohnoz zminy suchasnoho klimatu rehioniv Ukrayiny dlya pidtrymannya staloho rozvytku ekonomiky Ukrayiny. Zvit pro NDR №1/12 [Physical-statistical analysis of the current climate and cli-mate forecast for the Ukrainian regions for the sustainable economy development of Ukraine. Report on research work №1/12]. (2014). Kyiv, Ukraine: UkrGMÍ, 381.
Ivus, G.P., Agayar, E.V., Gurskaya, L.M., Semergey-Chumachenko, A.B. (2016). Tsirkulyatsionnyye usloviya voz-niknoveniya sil'nogo i stikhiynogo vetra nad yuzhnym zapadom Ukrainy [Circulating conditions for the emer-gence of a strong and elemental wind over the southern west of Ukraine]. Ukr. Gídrometeorol. Zhurn, 17, 38-48.
Kononova, N.K. (2009). Klassifikatsiya tsirkulyatsionnykh mekhanizmov Severnogo polushariya po B.L. Dzerdze-yevskomu [Classification of the circulation mechanisms of the Northern Hemisphere according to B.L. Dzerdzeev-sky]. Moscow, Russia: Voyentekhinizdat, 372.
Martazinova, V.F., Ivanova, Ye.K (2008). Ispol'zovaniye sinopticheskoy informatsii metodov plavayushchego i traditsionnogo analogov v predstavlenii tekushchikh sinopticheskikh protsessov [Use of synoptic information of the methods of floating and traditional analogues in the representation of current synoptic processes]. Nauk. Pr. UkrNDGMÍ, 257, 5-15.
Ugryumov, A.I. (2006). Dolgosrochnyye meteorologicheskiye prognozy [Long-term meteorological forecasts]. Sankt-Peterburg, Russia: RGGMU, 84.
Alexander, L. V., Zhang, X., Peterson, T. C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Haylock, M., Collins, D., Trewin, B., Rahimzadeh, F., Tagipour, A., Ambenje, P., Rupa Kumar, K., Revadekar, J., and Griffiths, G. (2006). Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, J. Geophys.Res. Atmos., 111, D05109, doi:10.1029/2005JD006290.
Domonkos, P., Kysely, J., Piotrowicz, K., Petrovic, P., Likso, T. (2003). Variability of extreme temperature events in south-central Europe during the 20th century and its relationship with large-scale circulation. Int. J. Climatol, 23, 987–1010.
Kalnay, E. et al. (1996). The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 77, 437–471.
Kim, G-Y., Ahn, J.-B., Kryjov, V. N, Sohn, S.-J., Yun, W.-T., Graham, R., Kolli, R.K., Kumar, A., Ceron, J.-P. (2016). Global and regional skill of the seasonal predictions by WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble. Int. J. Climatol., 36, 1657–1675. doi:10.1002/ joc.4449.
Landsea, C.W. (2015). Comments on “monitoring and understanding trends in extreme storms: state of knowledge”. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc., 96, 1175-1176. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00211.1.
Loikith, P.C., Broccoli, A.J. (2012). Characteristics of Observed Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes over North America. J. Climate, 25, 7266–7281. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00709.1.
Martazinova, V. (2005). The Classification of Synoptic Patterns by Method of Analogs. J. Environ. Sci. Eng., 7,
-65.
Pfahl, S. (2014). Characterising the relationship between weather extremes in Europe and synoptic circulation features. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1461-1475. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1461-2014.
Seneviratne, S., Zwiers, F. (2015). Attribution and prediction of extreme events: Editorial on the special issue. Weather Clim. Extremes, 9, 2-5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.08.003.
Seneviratne, S., Nichols, N., Easterling, D., Goodess, C., Kanae, S., Kossin, J., Luo, Y., Marengo, J., McInnes, K., Rahimi, M., Reichstein, M., Sorteberg, A., Vera, C., Zhang, X. (2012). Changes in climate extremes and their im-pacts on the natural physical environment, chapter 3 in IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, New York, NY, USA, 109-230.
Sillman, J., Croci-Maspoli, M., Kallache, M., Katz, R. (2011). Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe under the influence of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking. J. Clim., 24, 5899-5913, 10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1.
Tomczyk, А. (2016). Impact of atmospheric circulation on the occurrence of heat waves in southeastern Europe. Idojaras, 120, 395-414.
Trenberth, K.E., Fasullo, J.T. Shepherd, T.G. (2015). Attribution of climatic extreme events. Nat. Clim. Chang., 5(8), 725-730. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2657
Wetterzentrale, Archive. Available at: http://www.wetterzentrale.de
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2018 Олександр Андрійович Щеглов
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
