GEODEMOGRAPHIC FORECAST OF KHARKIV REGION (USING THE EXTRAPOLATION METHOD)

Authors

  • К. Ю. Сегіда V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Ukraine

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26565/2410-7360-2015-43-26

Keywords:

Kharkiv region population, demographic situation, demographic development, geodemographic forecast, extrapolation method

Abstract

Demographic forecast is the necessary precondition for elaboration and implementation of programs of social and economic direction, social infrastructure development, increase in the level and quality of population life, competitiveness and investment attractiveness.

Kharkiv region’s population decreased by 360 thousand people during 1995-2013, it corresponded to the state trend. The population dynamics corresponds to the linear trend for the general population of Kharkiv region, so the extrapolation method application is expedient.

Extrapolation methods application for the future population estimation is based on assumption that identified births, death trends will be unchanged during the predictable period of time. The population data base for 15 previous years was constructed for a 5 year- forecast, a coincidence to the linear distribution was confirmed. The population forecast (in general and separately for male and female population) till 2020 for the region and districts’ population was developed based on the initial data (population in 2001-2014). The approximation value for the whole population is high (0.96), therefore the forecast is reliable. Besides general number of population the pessimistic and optimistic values were determined by means of standard deviation calculation. The developed forecasts for all districts of Kharkiv region, according to our calculations, can be divided into 3 groups by the value of approximation reliability: districts with the low level of the approximation value (R2 < 0,8) – this includes 2 districts: Kharkivsky and Dergachivsky; districts with the high level of the approximation value (0,8<R2<0,97) –most districts; districts with the very high level of the approximation value (R2>0,97) – this is Pechenizsky, Pervomaysky, Lozivsky, Kup’ansky, Krasnogradsky, Kolomaksky, Kegichivsky, Izumsky, Borivsky, Barvinkivsky.

According to the calculated data, if the trends of the population decrease continues, it is necessary to apply measures of demographic policy to improve the demographic situation and approximate optimistic values of the population.

Author Biography

К. Ю. Сегіда, V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University

PhD (Geography), Associate Professor

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Published

2016-04-27

Issue

No. 43 (2015)

Section

Geography

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Copyright (c) 2016 К. Ю. Сегіда

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