PROXY OPERATIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR

NATURE, PRINCIPLES AND EFFECTIVENESS INDICATORS

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.63978/3083-6476.2025.1.1.05

Keywords:

proxy operations, proxy war, hybrid war, Russian-Ukrainian war, strategic destabilization, asymmetric actions, information and psychological influence, sponsoring states, non-state actors, effectiveness assessment, national and military security of the state

Abstract

The relevance of the study is due to the growing role of proxy operations in modern conflicts, in particular in the context of the ongoing russian-Ukrainian war, which is taking on the characteristics of a hybrid and asymmetric war. The proxy actions of the russian federation against Ukraine through non-state or puppet actors create significant challenges for national security and international stability. The purpose of the article is to understand systematically the nature of proxy operations, formulate the principles of their preparation and implementation, and determine indicators for assessing their effectiveness. The study uses methods of analysis and synthesis, a comparative-historical approach, a systems analysis, and the Saati hierarchy method to rank indicators for assessing the effectiveness of proxy operations. Among the main results: a refined definition of the concepts of proxy operation” and “proxy war”, the basic principles of conducting proxy operations are formulated, a system of key indicators for assessing the effectiveness of proxy operations is proposed, and their weight coefficients are calculated in the general indicator for assessing the effectiveness of proxy operations. The materials of the article will be useful for the specialists in the field of national security, strategic communications, military affairs, analysts, specialists in international relations and scholars in the field of political and military sciences.

Author Biographies

Volodymyr Koval, Non-Governmental Organization “Center for Military Strategy and Technologies”, Kyiv

Philosophy Doctor in Military Sciences,
Senior Researcher

Oleh Semenenko, Central Scientific and Research Institute of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kyiv

Doctor in Military Sciences, Professor
Deputy Head of the Central Scientific
Research

References

Ignatius D. The secret planning that kept the White House one step ahead of Russia. URL: www.washingtonpost.com. The Washington Post. Archive original of May 27, 2022.

Soldiers, Separatists, Sanctions: A Timeline of The Russia-Ukraine Crisis. February 24, 2022. Archive original of February 25, 2022.

Fears Moscow plans to encircle and threaten Kyiv – as it happened. The Guardian (British). February 25, 2022.

Bocharnikov V.P., Sveshnikov. S.V. Views on the nature of modern military conflicts. Science and Defense. 2017. No. 1. pp. 3–8.

Tafotie JR, Idahosa SO Conflicts in Africa and major powers: proxy wars, zones of influence or provocative instability. Herald of RUDN. Series: International relations. 2016. Vol. 16. No. 3. Р. 451-460.

Mumford A. Proxy Warfare (War and Conflict in the Modern World). Cambridge: Polity Press, 2013. Р. 22, 46-48.

Liang Qiao, Wang Xiangsui. “Unrestricted Warfare”: Assumptions on War and Tactics in the Age of Globalization. Beijing, 1999, p. 6, 12.

Semenenko O., Vodchyts O., Tolok P., Mytchenko S., Getman A., Tarasov O. Main theoretical and practical aspects of conducting proxy wars and hybrid wars in the modern global geopolitical and security environment: history, theory, practice, forms and methods, experience for Ukraine. Social Development and Security. 2023. No. 13 (3). Р. 1-23. URL: https://doi.org/10.33445/sds.2023.13.3.1

Mikryukov V.Yu. Proxy war. Scientific Research Center for National Security Problems, 2015. URL: http://nic-pnb.ru/analytics/proksi-vojna/.

Hongwei Li. Seven Balls Can’t Fall: The World Order Reconstruction Under the Geopolitics’ Perspective. International and Public Affairs. 2018. Vol. 2. № 4. P. 83-84.

Czernin F. Versailles, 1919. The Forces, Events and Personalities that Shaped the Treaty. Putnam, 1964.

Dormandy X. Afghanistan's Proxy War. The Boston Globe, 2007, 16 Feb. URL: https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/afghanistans-proxy-war.

Ratkin L.S. Resilience of the energy industry and “resilience” of the economy: how do they stand up to proxy wars? Investments in Russia. 2018. № 12 (287). Р. 43-46.

Knyazeva M. What is hybrid warfare? IA REGNUM, 2018. URL: https://regnum.ru/news/2421809.html.

Lucas E. The New Cold War: How the Kremlin Menaces Both Russia and the West. L., 2009.

Semenenko O., Ostapet O., Romanchenko O., Onofriychuk P., Moskalenko I., Dobrovolska L. Modern features of formation and development of the resource management system in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Journal of Scientific Papers “Social Development and Security”. 2021. № 11 (2). Р. 125-140. DOI: 10.33445/sds.2021.11.2.13.

Gorbulin V. Hybrid war as a key tool of Russia’s geostrategy of revenge. URL: www.niss.gov.ua/public/File/2015_book/012315_Gorbulyn.pdf.

Published

2025-05-19

Issue

Section

НАЦІОНАЛЬНА БЕЗПЕКА