UKRAINE’S MOBILIZATION RESILIENCE IN THE WAR OF ATTRITION: CHALLENGES, THREATS, CONSEQUENCES

Abstract

The article investigates Ukraine’s mobilization resilience under conditions of protracted positional warfare of attrition. The subject of the study is the system of manning the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and the factors determining its long-term sustainability in the 2026–2030 planning horizon. The topic addresses one of the most acute strategic challenges of the current conflict: how to maintain combat effectiveness when demographic resources are shrinking and battle losses are escalating. The purpose of the research is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of mobilization resilience challenges, threats, and consequences, and to develop evidence-based recommendations for reforming the AFU recruitment system. The methodology combines systemic analysis, comparative assessment of mobilization potentials of Ukraine and Russia, statistical modelling of combat and noncombat casualty dynamics, and scenario-based forecasting across three time horizons. The study draws on data from the Central Research Institute of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, open-source casualty analysis, and international defence policy research. The main results of the research are as follows. It is established that over two thirds of combat casualties are inflicted not in direct close combat but through the integrated detection-and-strike network (“kill-net”), with kamikaze drones accounting for the largest share, followed by artillery and guided aerial bombs. A growing asymmetry in mobilization potential between Ukraine and Russia is identified, driven by demographic losses, large-scale emigration, and health-related limitations of the draft-eligible population. A five-option system of flexible fixed-term service contracts is developed, based on the inverse-proportionality principle: the higher the combat risk accepted, the shorter the contract term and the larger the financial and social benefits package; the lower the risk, the longer the service period with a reduced package. This approach transforms mobilization from coercion to informed civic choice. A matrix of challenges, threats, and consequences across three time horizons (2026–2027, 2028–2029, 2029–2030) is constructed, demonstrating an escalating pattern from managerial and operational challenges in the near term to structural demographic and resource crises by 2030. Key conclusions: the strategic priority for preserving mobilization resilience is not increasing the mobilization flow but systematically reducing combat and non-combat losses through kill-net dominance, large-scale anti-drone defence, and standardized operational procedures. The proposed flexible contract system, combined with targeted recruitment reform and transparent accountability mechanisms, can significantly improve public trust in the military institution and increase voluntary enlistment. Potential areas of application include legislative reform of military service law, development of AFU manning strategy documents, and informing allied nations’ advisory frameworks for Ukraine.