Modeling of financial performance of urban electric transport enterprises in the war and post-war periods

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15587/2706-5448.2024.318464

Keywords:

urban electric transport, transport infrastructure, financial indicators, profit, development strategy, urban transport system

Abstract

The object of research is the financial indicators of urban electric transport enterprises. The problem of modeling of the main financial indicators of the activities of urban electric transport enterprises of Ukraine in the war and post-war period is considered. Their research and analysis are a necessary condition for a general and comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of the functioning and financial capacity of enterprises in the industry. This will allow assessing the profitability level and will allow predicting the ability of enterprises to fulfill their main duties – to transport passengers within cities, as well as adequately respond to the variability of external and internal factors of influence. The input data used were performance indicators (namely, income and expenses) of enterprises that are part of the Ukrelectrotrans Corporation and are located in large cities of Ukraine – Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia. The profit of the specified enterprises was modeled and their forecast values in the future period were determined. A conceptual approach was formed to forecast profit, which includes 6 main stages, which are sequentially described in this work. The trend for determining the profit of enterprises with the best result according to the criterion of reliability of approximation is presented, and the results of modeling of the forecast values of enterprise profits for 2025–2026 are also presented. However, the obtained forecast values indicate a deterioration in the financial indicators of the studied enterprises due to a number of variable internal and external factors. Namely: military operations, objective economic difficulties, a decrease in demand for transport services, the absence of changes in tariff policy, imperfect and outdated methods of enterprise management, insufficient support from the state and local governments, and an almost complete lack of investment in the industry. A number of recommendations are offered to the heads of transport enterprises to ensure the effective use of financial resources for the restoration and further development of urban transport systems in Ukrainian cities. However, the question of how universal these recommendations can be for all urban electric transport enterprises without taking into account the specifics of each city of Ukraine remains debatable. It is important that the proposed measures be adapted to the real conditions, capabilities and needs of each specific enterprise.

Author Biographies

Denys Zakharov, O. M. Beketov National University of Urban Economy in Kharkiv

PhD

Department of Entrepreneurship and Business Administration

Oleksii Palant, O. M. Beketov National University of Urban Economy in Kharkiv

Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor

Department of Entrepreneurship and Business Administration

Olha Rudachenko, O. M. Beketov National University of Urban Economy in Kharkiv

Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor

Department of Entrepreneurship and Business Administration

References

  1. Zakharov, D. (2022). Post-war development of public transport in the context of the “Reconstruction plan of Ukraine”. Herald of Khmelnytskyi National University. Economic Sciences, 312 (6 (2)), 395–399.
  2. Pylypenko, N. A. (2023). Implementation ecocity as a model of post war recovery of ukrainian cities. Stalyi rozvytok aviatsiinoi infrastruktury Ukrainy. Lviv-Torun: Liha-Pres, 268–284.
  3. Sviezhentseva, I. (2022). Viina ta infrastruktura: kontseptsiia ekomist dlia vidbudovy krainy. Suspilne. Novyny. Available at: https://suspilne.media/273683-vijna-ta-infrastruktura-koncepcia-ekomist-dla-vidbudovi-kraini/
  4. Boichenko, M. (2023). Restoration and Development of Transport Infrastructure in the Post-War Period. Economic Herald of the Donbas, 3 (73), 132–137. https://doi.org/10.12958/1817-3772-2023-3(73)-132-137
  5. Ozarko, K., Chelombytko, V. (2022). Peculiarities of Logistics Processes During the War Period: Problems and Development Prospects. Economic Herald of the Donbas, 2 (68), 74–78. https://doi.org/10.12958/1817-3772-2022-2(68)-74-78
  6. Koltun, V. S., Zamazieieva, G. V. (2022). Management of the quality of public transport services in the processes of post-war reconstruction of the regions of Ukraine. Public Management and Administration in Ukraine, 31, 119–128. https://doi.org/10.32782/pma2663-5240-2022.31.21
  7. Sverhun, A. P. (2022). Rozvytok transportnoi haluzi v umovakh voiennykh zahroz. Marketynhovi stratehii, pidpryiemnytstvo i torhivlia: suchasnyi stan, napriamky rozvytku. Kyiv, 128–130. Available at: https://library.knuba.edu.ua/books/zbirniki/25/27_10_22.pdf
  8. Funktsionuvannia transportnoho sektoru Ukrainy v umovakh pravovoho rezhymu voiennoho stanu (2022). Natsionalnyi instytut stratehichnykh doslidzhen. Available at: https://niss.gov.ua/news/komentari-ekspertiv/funktsionuvannya-transportnoho-sektoru-ukrayiny-vumovakh-pravovoho
  9. Sotsialno-ekonomichni ta humanitarni naslidky rosiiskoi ahresii dlia ukrainskoho suspilstva (2022). Tsentr Razumkova. Kyiv. Available at: https://razumkov.org.ua/uploads/article/2022_Gum.pdf
  10. Vodovozov, Ye. N. (2019). Zastosuvannia metodu imitatsiinoho modeliuvannia dlia otsinky efektyvnosti optymizatsii marshrutiv miskoho pasazhyrskoho transportu. Nauka ta intelektualnyi kapital u systemi faktoriv transformatsii ekonomiky. Kyiv: HO “Kyivskyi ekonomichnyi naukovyi tsentr”, 17–19.
  11. Vodovozov, E., Rudachenko, O. (2021). Devising a procedure for ensuring entrepreneurship protectionism in the context of financial capital investments for the purpose of rehabilitation of the transport sector. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 4 (13 (112)), 34–41. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2021.238414
  12. Raskin, L., Sira, O., Palant, O., Vodovozov, Y. (2019). Development of a model of the service system of batch arrivals in the passengers flow of public transport. Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 5 (3 (101)), 51–56. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2019.180562
  13. Shamrin, R. V. (2016). Simulation modeling of economic systems: software tools and areas of improvement. Ekonomika i derzhava, 1, 35–39.
  14. Vlasiuk, Yu. O. (2013). Osoblyvosti imitatsiinoho modeliuvannia ekonomichnykh system. Zbirnyk naukovykh prats Tavriiskoho derzhavnoho ahrotekhnolohichnoho universytetu, 4 (24), 33–35.
  15. Chekanova, L. H., Palant, O. Yu., Kushnir, T. B. (2010). Analiz stanu ta perspektyvy rozvytku miskoho nazemnoho elektrychnoho transportu. Komunalne hospodarstvo mist. Seriia Ekonomichni nauky, 92, 150–153.
  16. Palant, O. Yu. (2015). Doslidzhennia tekhniko-ekonomichnykh pokaznykiv ta stanu haluzi miskoho elektrychnoho transportu Ukrainy. Biznes-Inform, 9, 200–212.
  17. Nykyforuk, O. I. (2014). Modernizatsiia nazemnykh transportnykh system Ukrainy. Kyiv: NAN Ukrainy, DU “Instytut ekonomiky ta prohnozuvannia NAN Ukrainy”, 440.
  18. Bohodystyi, P. O., Zbarskyi, L. V., Palant, O. Yu. (2017). Troleibusy Ukrainy. Kharkiv: Zoloti storinky, 480.
  19. Bohodystyi, P. O. (2016). Pasazhyrski troleibusy Ukrainy. Poltava: TOV “ASMI”, 340.
  20. Dzhabrailov, A. (2021). Elaboration of proposals regarding the tram companies’ strategic ways of development in Ukraine. Economy and Society, 28. https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2021-28-36
  21. Vodovozov, Ye. N. (2019). Innovatsiini peretvorennia avtobusnoho spoluchennia m. Kyieva yak osnova vdoskonalennia ekonomichnoho potentsialu stolytsi. Nauka ta innovatsii yak osnovni shliakhy vdoskonalennia ekonomichnoho potentsialu krainy. Lviv, 27–29.
  22. Palant, O., Stamatin, V. (2019). Systemic performance of metro enterprises (on the example of municipal enterprise Kharkiv metro). Scientific Opinion: Economics and Management, 3 (65). https://doi.org/10.32836/2521-666x/2019-65-19
  23. Benhabib, J., Perli, R. (1994). Uniqueness and Indeterminacy: On the Dynamics of Endogenous Growth. Journal of Economic Theory, 63 (1), 113–142. https://doi.org/10.1006/jeth.1994.1035
  24. Brunner, M., Strulik, H. (2002). Solution of perfect foresight saddlepoint problems: a simple method and applications. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 26 (5), 737–753. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0165-1889(00)00078-6
  25. Gong, G., Greiner, A., Semmler, W. (2004). The Uzawa-Lucas model without scale effects: theory and empirical evidence. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 15 (4), 401–420. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2003.10.002
  26. Stemp, P. J., Herbert, R. D. (2006). Solving Non-Linear Models with Saddle-Path Instabilities. Computational Economics, 28 (2), 211–231. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-006-9042-6
  27. Risk appetite and tolerance. Developing Risk Professionals. Institute of Risk Management (IRM). Available at: https://www.theirm.org/what-we-say/thought-leadership/risk-appetite-and-tolerance/
  28. Risk Appetite & Tolerance. Guidance Paper (2011). Institute of Risk Management. Crowe Horwath. Available at: https://www.theirm.org/media/7239/64355_riskapp_a4_web.pdf
  29. O`Byrne, R. (2022). KPI Key Performance Indicators in Supply Chain & Logistics. Benchmarking, Performance Measurement. KPIs. Available at: https://www.logisticsbureau.com/kpi-key-performance-indicator/
  30. A Complete Guide on How to Set Smart KPI Targets and Goals (2018). RIB Software GmbH. Available at: https://www.rib-software.com/en/blogs/kpi-targets-goals-examples
  31. Felicio, M. (2018). 10 KPI’s you should implement in your logistics company. Linked in. Available at: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/10-kpis-you-should-implement-your-logistics-company-marina-fel%C3%ADcio
  32. Theil, H., Wage, S. (1964). Some Observations on Adaptive Forecasting. Management Science, 10 (2), 198–206. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.10.2.198
  33. Winters, P. R. (1960). Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages. Management Science, 6 (3), 324–342. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.6.3.324
  34. Ofitsiinyi veb-sait korporatsii Ukrelektrotrans. Available at: https://www.korpmet.org.ua/
12Modeling of financial performance of urban electric transport enterprises in the war and post-war periods

Downloads

Published

2024-12-24

How to Cite

Zakharov, D., Palant, O., & Rudachenko, O. (2024). Modeling of financial performance of urban electric transport enterprises in the war and post-war periods. Technology Audit and Production Reserves, 6(80). https://doi.org/10.15587/2706-5448.2024.318464

Issue

Vol. 6 No. 80 (2024): Article in Press

Section

Economics and Enterprise Management

License

Copyright (c) 2024 Denys Zakharov, Oleksii Palant, Olha Rudachenko

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

The consolidation and conditions for the transfer of copyright (identification of authorship) is carried out in the License Agreement. In particular, the authors reserve the right to the authorship of their manuscript and transfer the first publication of this work to the journal under the terms of the Creative Commons CC BY license. At the same time, they have the right to conclude on their own additional agreements concerning the non-exclusive distribution of the work in the form in which it was published by this journal, but provided that the link to the first publication of the article in this journal is preserved.