Dependence of air passenger transportation from socio-economic indicators of Ukraine
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15587/2312-8372.2016.66828Keywords:
air transport, socio-economic indicators, statistics, correlation and regression analysisAbstract
The paper studies the relationships between the impact a number of socio-economic factors: the total GDP of Ukraine, GDP per capita and inflation rate, on air passenger transportation.
Knowledge of the relationship between the studied factors makes it possible to forecast the air passenger traffic depending on the socio-economic factors with a reasonable accuracy.
It was found that the greatest impact has the GDP per capita factor. Strengths and weaknesses of correlation relationships of pairs of factors were identified. The pairs of factors that are the most and least suitable for forecasting air passenger traffic were determined.
For each pair of factors the correlation coefficient and coefficient of determination were calculated, an equation to quantify the magnitude of air travelers was obtained.
Forecasting of air passenger traffic based on the socio-economic factors enables airlines of Ukraine to search for and select of the optimal airline development strategy.References
- Informatsiia shchodo realizatsii protiahom 2014 roku Transportnoi stratehii Ukrainy na period do 2020 roku. (08.05.2015). Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine. Available: http://mtu.gov.ua/news/86.html
- Shchelkunov, V. I., Hryhoriev, H. S. (2006). Transportna infrastruktura rehioniv Ukrainy: problemy terytorialno-ekonomichnoho reformuvannia. Kyiv: Naukova dumka, 220.
- Krykavskyi, Ye. V. (1997). Formuvannia ekonomichnoho potentsialu pidpryiemstv na osnovi lohistychnykh kontseptsii. Lviv, 418.
- Marintseva, K. V. (2015). Naukovi osnovy ta metody zabezpechennia efektyvnoho funktsionuvannia aviatransportnykh system. Kyiv, 561.
- Korodiuk, I. S., Kuskov, A. E. (2001). Statisticheskie metody issledovaniia transportnogo kompleksa krupnogo regiona. Rol' transporta i sviazi v sisteme regional'noi ekonomiki Irkutskoi oblasti. Irkutsk, 20–28.
- Sergeev, V. I. (1988). Modelirovanie proizvodstvennyh sistem avtotransporta. Leningrad: LIEI, 50.
- Prokof'eva, T. A., Lopatkin, O. M. (2003). Logistika transportno-raspredelitel'nyh sistem: regional'nyi aspekt. Moscow: Konsul't, 400.
- Dymarchuk, S. M. (2000). Lohistychna systema upravlinnia ta yii vzaiemozviazok z stratehiieiu pidpryiemstva. Visnyk DU «Lvivska politekhnika», 390, 20–22.
- Ishutkina, M., Hansman, R. J. (2008, September 14). Analysis of Interaction between Air Transportation and Economic Activity. The 26th Congress of ICAS and 8th AIAA ATIO. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), 18. doi:10.2514/6.2008-8888
- Dharmawan, N. I. (2012). The Effect of Air Transport to Economic Development in Indonesia. Rotterdam: Erasmus University of Rotterdam, 38.
- Baltaci, N., Sekmen, O., Gizem, A. (2015). The Relationship between Air Transport and Economic Growth in Turkey: Cross-Regional Panel Data Analysis Approach. Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, Vol. 7, № 1, 89–100.
- Yao, S., Yang, X. (2012, December). Air transport and regional economic growth in China. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, Vol. 19, № 3, 318–329. doi:10.1080/16081625.2012.667458
- World Economic Forum: Global competitiveness rating 2013-2014. (05.09.2013). Centre of Humanitarian Technologies. Available: http://gtmarket.ru/news/2013/09/05/6219
- Official portal of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Available: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
- Official website of the Ukrainian State Air Traffic Services Enterprise. Available: http://uksatse.ua
- World Economic Outlook Database. (2015, October). International Monetary Fund. Available: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=82&pr.y=1&sy=2006&ey=2020&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=%2C&br=1&c=926&s=NGDP_R%2CNGDP_RPCH%2CNGDP%2CNGDPD%2CNGDP_D%2CNGDPRPC%2CNGDPPC%2CNGDPDPC%2CPPPGDP%2CPPPPC%2CPCPI%2CPCPIPCH%2CGGR&grp=0&a
- Egghe, L., Leydesdorff, L. (2009, May). The relation between Pearson’s correlation coefficient r and Salton's cosine measure. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Vol. 60, № 5, 1027–1036. doi:10.1002/asi.21009
- Pearson's correlation. Available: http://www.statstutor.ac.uk/resources/uploaded/pearsons.pdf
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2016 Андрій Євгенійович Бабенко, Олена Євгенівна Соколова, Алла Миколаївна Валько
![Creative Commons License](http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by/4.0/88x31.png)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The consolidation and conditions for the transfer of copyright (identification of authorship) is carried out in the License Agreement. In particular, the authors reserve the right to the authorship of their manuscript and transfer the first publication of this work to the journal under the terms of the Creative Commons CC BY license. At the same time, they have the right to conclude on their own additional agreements concerning the non-exclusive distribution of the work in the form in which it was published by this journal, but provided that the link to the first publication of the article in this journal is preserved.