Lytvynova O. Methods of simulation of reliability’s assessing of the elementary systems.

Abstract

In article the analysis of imitating models of the elementary systems is carried out. These systems contain the random variables having various distribution laws. At an investigation phase and design of systems at construction and realization of machine models the method of statistical tests is used (Monte-Carlo method). This method is based on use of random numbers. The possibility of modeling of random variables and processes definitely can be used for imitation of some real economic events and production situations. Such approach which uses various limiting ratios of probability theory – laws of large numbers and limiting theorems is the cornerstone of a Monte Carlo method. By the Monte-Carlo method the casual choice of numbers from the set probabilistic distribution is the cornerstone of calculations. This numerical method gives the chance to define estimates of probabilistic characteristics of system. In the course of carrying out researches it has been found an assessment of probability of no-failure operation of the device for a certain time interval and the average time of no-failure operation of the device is determined. When calculating have played time of no-failure operation of elements of system, time of no-failure operation of knots of system and all device; are defined probabilities of no-failure operation of elements of system, knots of system and probability of no-failure operation of the device in general. Besides, in the course of studying of system’s work have determined the average time of no-failure operation of elements, knots and all device.