Tarlopov I. Analysis of migration processes in Ukraine.

Abstract

The article presents the results of a study of migration dynamics in Ukraine. The key factor of the migration process is determined - the labor market situation. The dynamics of urban and rural migrations is analyzed and its main causes are determined. The strength and direction of the connection between unemployment and territorial displacement of the population is determined. There was a hypothesis about the existence of a temporary lag between wage changes and migrations, and therefore, based on the calculation of the correlation coefficient, the correlation of the average monthly nominal wages of regular workers by regions in the previous year with migrations in the current year was estimated. To determine the multiplicity between changes in the average monthly wage by region and regional migration in 2016 compared with 2015 the elasticity coefficient is calculated. The main directions have been analyzed and significant changes in external migration flows have been identified. As the main direction of further research, in order to know not only the direction of migration flows, but also the factors that motivate people to change their place of residence, it is suggested to build econometric models of migration. Since migrations are analyzed at the level of the regions at the level of municipalities, but at the same time do not take into account the differentiation, sometimes very significant, within the same region, it is suggested to carry out analysis and assessment of migrations at the city level.