Khadzhynov I. Overview of Ukraine's foreign trade: challenges and trends

Abstract

This paper examines the current trends of development of Ukraine, the analysis of external and internal risks forming an economic situation of the country, defined assumptions and risks of development of Ukraine in 2014-2015 years. Events in Ukraine creates spillovers for all CIS countries and their major trading partners. In case of further instability increases the risk of infringement of trade and financial ties in the region. Sector sanctions on Russia and geopolitical tensions lead to a decrease in investment activity in Russia, curtailment of investment projects and the withdrawal of foreign capital from the Russian market. Restrictions on imports introduced by Russia of Ukraine, the EU and the US will face strong inflationary pressure on the economy of Russia. However, even effective implementation of programs of import substitution, which, according to Russian economists, could be a stimulant to the economy of Russia, will not achieve tangible effects in the short term. Failure to prevent the risk of re-tangible depreciation, it is hoped that it will stimulate a bit cheaper Ukrainian producers and export activities will reduce the demand for imported products that will help in the short term some adjustment of the foreign trade balance.