Prypoten V. , Yzumov I., Stochastic model of diagnostics of economic indicators of small enterprise

Abstract

Basic contradictions, at diagnosticating of indexes of small enterprises, are determined by means of scope of all activity of enterprise and receipt of the aggregated information for control of destabilizing factors and realization of necessary actions by the most effective method. At problem description the authors mark, that the basic difficulty in these contradictions is placed in cause-and-effect relations of economic objects, and the change of one absolute indexes not always is transformed in results the rests. Thus, the construction of the diagnosting system draws considerable economic expenses. Analysis of the last researches and publications, allowed to get the applications of possibility to use the methods of economic analysis, features of construction of models and use of information technologies. Finishing stage of process of diagnostics is the definition of executive and horizontal connections between them, which is accompanied by the construction of algorithm on the rules described in the article. This process allows to define the separate stages of works. Realization of diagnosticating of small enterprise on the basis of results of past periods does not give a high-quality estimation and considerably reduces obtained results, that entails a search and development of new mathematical methods and informative approaches to solve the problem. Creation of dynamic model allows in the on-line operation to define negative factors. A basic idea of the article is the development of new methodologies,  the determination of basic destabilizing factors in the systems of diagnosticating of the economic state of small enterprise. As a result of the conducted research, the methodology of diagnostics of the economic state of small enterprises is presented, by a base element, which is a stochastic model of enterprise. On basis of continuous estimation of correlation properties of entrance indexes of small enterprise the harmonic main functions by means of which on a model the test is conducted are formed. On results of tests with the set exactness (probability of the stable state), diagnosticating of small enterprise is conducted.