Lysyy A. Management of a cargo turn-over in the conditions of winter navigation in the Azov sea

Abstract

The necessity of use for management of industrial activity of seaports of the analysis and forecasting of seasonal processes is reasonable In the article. The statistical data which show essential reduction of a cargo turn-over of ports of sea of Azov in ice conditions are cited. "Channels-vessels-environments" are analysed structure of transport system. Necessity to consider a principle of the guaranteed safe management by an ice caravan on dangerous plots of a waterway at the expense of improvement of methods of an effective utilisation of ice breakers and an order of movement and as consequence of forecasting and increase of an overall performance of ports of sea of Azov is underlined. It is noticed that management of caravans of courts bases on experience of marine practice in the winter, and procedure of an ice pilotage on shipping routes till this time remains independent. Some aspects of transport activity connected with increase of an overall performance of fleet in ice conditions are allocated. By results of the carried out expert estimation of the indicated aspects, the most perspective selects management of courts for safe swimming during the winter period of year by work of ice breakers on harmonisation of throughput of marine channels and waterways. The made definition of concept, principles of necessarily safe functioning, structurization and management of system of an icebreaking pilotage. The special approach to formation of a choice of an effective evaluation procedure of popularity of courts in the conditions of ice conditions which meet the requirements of continuous planning and regulation of work of port is developed. The device of statistical forecasting which includes all stages of processing of dynamic numbers is offered and improved: the analysis of seasonal processes, forecasting of a seasonal wave and construction of confidential intervals.