Sotnychenko L. Forecasting of development of the regional transport infrastructure

Abstract

The methods of economic forecast are investigated in the article. Their classification according to a complexity of an economic predicted process is given; the foundation degree; by reception of the forecasting information. According to the foundation degree forecasting methods can be divided into intuitive and founded. By their feature “information basis of method” all methods are divided into factual, combined and expert. Belong to extrapolation, modeling, expert questionnaire to the basic methods of forecasting. Special attention should be drawn to the combined methods of forecasting, consisting of such methods with mixed information basis where factual, and as well as expert information is used primarily. The algorithm of carrying out the process of forecasting according to the revealed tendency of development of an infrastructure seen in the region is offered in the article. It is underlined that the application of only statistical methods in the not always the best way as they cannot predict all cases of changes in the research process. Therefore, the necessity of working out of a new type of methods based not only on statistical methods, but also on expert judgments is explained. It is proved thet the use of expert rating leads to increase of forecast accuracy. For working out of the objective forecast of development of a regional transport infrastructure. It is reasonable to use a scenery approach providing foundation of some scenery variants and their comparison. The procedure of forecasting a transport infrastructure of development is the basis for drawing up further programs and plans for development of their branches. It is the tool which allows to strengthen competitive advantages of the region and to conduct it on a newer level of it’s development